Follow the Money

If BYU stays, what will happen to the revised USU invite? If it's still on the table, USU could jump in once BYU decides to stay and then MWC would have 12 teams. But if BYU stays, would the MWC really want USU?

profgeek wrote:
My prognosis: BYU stays in the MWC and Comcast makes a concession that gives them right of first refusal on all MWC games and then gives BYU the right to pick up any others they want after mtn has had first pick. MWC concession might be that BYU gets to keep all their money under such a deal but gives up their (now watered down by 2 more) share.



Comcast isn't stupid and will see that without BYU their current agreement is even more worthless than it already is. By letting BYU televise some of their own games, it potentially brings more viewers to the games mtn decides to broadcast. Another part of it may be that BYU might let some of the facilities (i.e. the "van") be used for some HD, which would also give the mtn a boost.

You really think BYU would go for second helpings on broadcasting games? A big part of BYU's plan involves ESPN broadcasting games and I don't think they would be too pleased with a BYU-Wyoming matchup. I tend to agree more with Dick Harmon in that the MWC/MTN/Comcast will have to address 95% of BYU's concerns in order for BYU to stay. And second helpings, to me, fails to meet that 95% mark.



If BYU stays in the MWC in football then the MWC/MTN/Comcast has to offer something big.

craigoscarson wrote:
I dont' think the pitfalls concerning the remaining sports makes it palatable enough to pull the trigger, considering the fact that plan A (the Wac) has disintegrated.



But I dont' think this is really about money as much it is about exposure,for BYU, for BYUs recruiting and for the church. Like I mentioned before, there are donors that could make up the difference between what the MTN pays BYU and what BYU would like to run the athletic department. BYU is not hurting for cash to run our programs and keep our facilities world class. However, no single BYU booster or collection of boosters can do for our desire for exposure like ESPN can.



If the MWC gives into to even a decent fraction of BYUs demands for broadcasting independence, we get our cake and eat it too. We remain in the best non aq conference in the nation (it's still better than a couploe aq conferences in football and hoops); we continue to keep integrity in our entire sports program, and we finally have shown that we're willing to exert our leverage as the cash cow on the MWC; that cannot be understated, the MWC knows we will no longer be pushed around and unappreciated.



I have a feeling that the Big 12 has taken note; and we know that ESPN has. Unless the MWC refuses to give in to our demands of rebroadcasting rights and some independence to allow ESPN in our home games not covered by the Mtn; I think the MWC is still our home til Dan Beebe makes the phone call.

We are pretty much in agreement. I don't see BYU jumping out of the MWC if they get the concessions they want. The MWC would still have 4 games of their own to broadcast with BYU in the conference versus only those games played in a MWC team's home stadium, which could be zero in future years. Further, BYU's main goal is for exposure for the Church in a positive light.



My essay was an attempt to demonstrate that BYU seems to justify BCS team type revenue, based on the information we have gotten from ESPN so far. Further, BYU would not be a drain on the BIG12 financially as was first thought when all this conference shuffling began. If BYU is worth $15 mil in football revenue alone, that would justify ESPN paying that much more to the Big12 to include BYU.



Of course, the BOT will have to decide whether submitting to the whims of the Big12 is worth it compared to having greater autonomy as an independent.



I am also assuming that Comcast has no real power over BYU as BYU can walk and more than make up for the paltry sums they currently receive under the mtn. deal, but Comcast stands to lose 60% of their ad revenue and 75% of their installed base should BYU go independent.

Let's look at the flip side here. Everyone wants to talk about Notre Dame, Navy and Army as examples of what might happen if BYU goes Indy, but let's look at a few FORMERLY Indy teams and how they have fared since joing a league:



Penn State. 2 national Titles (1982, 1986) Started play in the Big 10 in 1990. 3 Big Ten titles in 17 seasons. 0 national titles since. 4 BCS bowls since 1993. Best national ranking since 1993 is #2 in 1994 (went undefeated). Overall, been a good move.



Florida State. 2 national titles (1993, 1999) Joined ACC in 1992. Had a dominant run from 1987-2000 where won 10 games or more every season. Ranked 5 or better every year in that stretch. Since 2001, only 1 10 win season. Overall, move helped, but not as of late once the ACC tried to win football games and not be a hoops only league.



Miami University. 5 national titles(1983, 1987, 1989, 1991, 2001) Joined Big East in 1991. Joined ACC in 2004.



Basically, Penn State has 0 national titles since it joined the Big Ten, 2 as an indy. Florida State has 0 since the ACC actually cared about playing football, and Miami won 3 titles as an indy, 2 in the crappy Big East, and has not won consistently in the ACC yet. Conference affiliation helps, but not in all cases. Some of these schools fared better as Independents. Miami certainly did.