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Say Romney wins the GOP nomination...

by Mars · 2/22/2012

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B
BroncoBot
ouch. I didn't think about that, but I'm sure Romney doesn't want to fan the Mormon flames any more than he has to. You're probably right.



Other news.



Ron Paul and Mitt Romney were the only candidates who polled ahead of Pres. Obama in the more recent polls. Santorum and Gingrich would do themselves and the GOP well by leaving the race now.
S
SpiffCoug
I don't think anyone is getting out before next Tuesday. Regardless of the results tonight (I do think Mitt wins both states today), everyone is in through Super Tuesday where a lot of momentum and delegates are to be had.
J
jvquarterback
Exit polls showing a dead heat in Michigan.
M
Mars
jvquarterback wrote:
Exit polls showing a dead heat in Michigan.

Which? I saw him up nearly 6%...
J
jvquarterback
Intrade posts links to sites that give actual exit poll results throughout the day. Romney pulled away with the evening voters.



That said it looks like he only won 4 districts yesterday while Santorum won 7 with the last district still up in the air. So Santorum will end up with more delegates from Michigan than Romney.
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SpiffCoug
You're missing some districts. Michigan has 14 congressional districts.



Two delegates went to the winner of the state and and two each congressional district winner.
J
jvquarterback
You're right



Santorum won 1,2,3,4,5,9,11,13 for 16 delegates

Romney won 7,8,10,12,14 for 10 delegates



The 2 state delegates are awarded proportionately so Santorum will get 17 delegates and Romney 11.
S
snoscythe
jvquarterback wrote:
You're right



Santorum won 1,2,3,4,5,9,11,13 for 16 delegates

Romney won 7,8,10,12,14 for 10 delegates



The 2 state delegates are awarded proportionately so Santorum will get 17 delegates and Romney 11.


I don't know where you are getting your information from, but you have a number of issues with your conclusions.



First off, Michigan awards 30 delegates, so you are missing two somewhere.



Second, the latest I've seen is 7 districts apiece, giving them each 14.



http://www.migopprimary.com/index.asp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



And the Romney camp and the Michigan GOP disagree with how you and Santorum read the allocation of the statewide delegates--the two statewide delegates both go to the statewide winner, not proportionately.



http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120229/POLITICS01/202290390/1361/Romney--Santorum-each-pick-up-delegates-in-Michigan" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



So, as things stand now, Romney is walking out with 16, Santorum with 14.
S
SpiffCoug
Through the results of the Wyoming caucus last night the delegate count stands at:

Romney 153

Santorum 70

Gingrich 33

Paul 26.



But if you look at just the binding contests its at:

Romeny 103

Gingrich 23

Santorum 15

Paul 3



The contest isn't as close as people think.
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snoscythe
SpiffCoug wrote:
Each will get 15.



http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/29/politics/primaries/index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


That still doesn't mesh with the Michigan GOP saying that the two statewide candidates both go to the statewide winner. It's a bit of misinformation that the Santorum campaign was floating about yesterday that no one other than Romney bothered to verify with the Michigan GOP--the folks who are in charge of the allocating.
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SpiffCoug
I could see the Michigan GOP saying since they each won 7 districts it's only "fair" to each win one state delegate.



Either way, Mitt took either 44 or 45 of the 59 available delegates on Tuesday.
J
jvquarterback
The Michigan GOP will pick those two delegates at the state convention and they can change the rules any time they want up until then (the rules are vague at this point despite what anyone says). The national party requires that binding primaries the first Tuesday in March and before be proportionally determined. There is a good chance a lot of those delegates you have going to Romney may still be given proportionally to other candidates.



According to the detroit free press Santorum won districts 1-4, 6 while romney won 8-12 and 14. Districts 5, 7, 13 are still too close to call and may require a recount. As of now you're right district 5 flipped and looks like it is going to Romney rather than Santorum as earlier reported.
S
snoscythe
jv, again, I don't know where you are getting your information about how the statewide delegates are going to be allocated. They have already been allocated to Romney.



CNN just announced an hour ago what the Michigan GOP announced late yesterday afternoon: Romney has been awarded both of the statewide delegates, giving him 16 and Santorum only 14.



"Republican officials in Michigan announced they rejiggered the delegate allocation from Tuesday's primary to give Romney 16 of the 30 available, with 14 going to Santorum."



http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/01/politics/primaries/index.html?hpt=hp_t3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



While it took CNN almost 24 hours to pick up on the announcement (maybe they were waiting for today's written press release instead of taking the Michigan GOP spokesman at his word yesterday?), it took the Santorum campaign less than an hour to paint this as the Romney campaign trying to "rig the outcome of an election by changing the rules after the vote."
S
SpiffCoug
To be fair to the Santorum campaign, having "Republican officials in Michigan" announcing they've "rejiggered the delegate allocation" that does sound something like "changing the rules after the vote."



That may not be the case, but those words do give that impression - at least to me.



One thing is clear - Santorum is not a good loser.
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jvquarterback
Here is a link to a summary of the Michigan GOP rules. From there there are links to the actual Michigan GOP rules. A couple of the results could be subject to recount particularly CD5 (though that isn't likely).



http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MI-R" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Here is the pertinent rule:
14 (10 at-large + 4 bonus) 2 National Convention Delegates are to be proportionally bound to presidential contenders based on the statewide vote.

A candidate must receive 15% of the statewide vote to be eligible to receive National Convention delegates. From those candidates meeting this threshold, proportionally bind the national convention delegates according to the statewide vote. Round factions to the nearest whole number (below 0.5 are rounded down, 0.5 and above are rounded up). If the end result is less than 14 2 delegates, allocate 1 additional delegate to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide. If the end result is more than 14 2 delegates, subtract 1 delegate from the candidate receiving the fewest votes statewide.


None of the delegates have been elected yet (that won't happen until after the county conventions and subsequent CD and state conventions) so it remains to be seen if Romney will get 15 or 16 delegates (though if Santorum contests the counts in CD 5, things could change as well). Delegates are bound through the first vote at the national convention and are subsequently released.
S
snoscythe
I think the "rejiggered" is CNN trying to save face after calling it 15-15 yesterday afternoon after the Michigan GOP held a teleconference with the press clarifying that the claims of the Santorum campaign that the 2 statewide votes would be allocated proportionately were false and that Romney would be getting both delegates.



This was announced yesterday before CNN and some others "called" the delegate count. They somehow just miffed the call and chose to take the Santorum campaign at their word. CNN went with what Santorum said instead of what the Michigan GOP said yesterday afternoon before CNN called it 15-15.



The AP story follows last night's vote to clarify the rule:



http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iYtg8tiC3naKXHfohh5QbB2UeDxw?docId=738326a3d37e4ad2b9a0aa7e9519e7c5" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



To the extent there was any "rejiggering" going on, it would appear that distaste for Santorum calling on Dems to votes would have been a bigger factor than Romney favoritism.



And BTW, the Michigan primary is binding as to the presidential election based upon the primary. None of that can be changed in the county, district, or state primary/conventions.
J
jvquarterback
snoscythe wrote:
And BTW, the Michigan primary is binding as to the presidential election based upon the primary. None of that can be changed in the county, district, or state primary/conventions.


Wanna bet? They can change any rule they want at any time. They happen to be a private group of individuals who can decide to pick delegates out of a hat or off the side of the street if they want to.



The central committee in Michigan is pushing their luck if they try to ram this through. The Santorum people in Michigan could join up with the Paul guys and change all of the rules at the state convention including ignoring the primary.



I'm not saying it will happen but it certainly has before.
S
snoscythe
jvquarterback wrote:
And BTW, the Michigan primary is binding as to the presidential election based upon the primary. None of that can be changed in the county, district, or state primary/conventions.


Wanna bet? They can change any rule they want at any time. They happen to be a private group of individuals who can decide to pick delegates out of a hat or off the side of the street if they want to.



The central committee in Michigan is pushing their luck if they try to ram this through. The Santorum people in Michigan could join up with the Paul guys and change all of the rules at the state convention including ignoring the primary.



I'm not saying it will happen but it certainly has before.


Any state committee can change the rules at any time, so that's a weak counter....by that argument, no primary is binding. The fact that Michigan is a binding primary is confirmed by your own link to the GreenPapers.



I don't understand the pity party for Santorum. The Michigan GOP issued a poorly worded memo in early February, and the Romney campaign called up the Michigan GOP for clarification, and they clarified to the Romney people that both candidates went to the state winner. Santorum chose to interpret it in his favor instead of calling for clarification. So we have two candidates who understood the rule differently--Santorum based on the memo alone, Romney on the basis of the memo plus clarification from the rule-makers. To split the two votes would be equally, if not more unfair to Romney, who had an equally, if not more reasonable basis for his interpretation.



The only thing proven here is that Santorum is a petulant child who can't control his emotions and doesn't think things through.



As for the idea that the RNC will do something about it--Santorum won't survive to the convention for it to make a difference.
J
jvquarterback
No argument Santorum is a terrible government loving loser, but he's running a cheap campaign and he'll be there at the convention with 20% of the delegates if he can pull off a win in Ohio.



Oh and the state committee can't change the rules. The rules are adopted at the state convention, so all delegates have to vote on changes.
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