All is not well in Provo

Cougarbib wrote:

KingCoug wrote:

We'll lose to ND, win GT, and lose to San Jose. At some point along that stretch, probably in the ND game, Riley will go down with another injury.



The coaches certainly have messed things up. Starting with Bronco and his man-crush on Riley and trust in Doman. I hope Bronco has learned from his mistakes.



Sadly, I think Doman keeps his job. Doman will blame a poor OL and an injured/limited QB on the shortcomings of the offense. Doman will get one more year. If he was smart, though, he'd look for a new job during the offseason because I seriously doubt he'll be able to produce much better next season. Cards are stacked against him. Any failures on his part at this point will trump any measure of success. I'd get out of Provo if I was Doman. Always easier to find a job when you have a job.

We're not going to lose to San Jose State. C'mon.

SJSU hung 27 points on USU, that's 3 TDs more than we were able to muster against USU. Yes, it was Hill's first complete game. But do you think Riley will be healthy come the end of November? We've got no kicking game and 3 TDs seems to be our threshold.



Plus, it's at SJSU. We'll be the "big-time" program coming to SJSU. They'll be up for it after we humiliated them last season and pull out all the stops against us. We'll be limping along and it will be "just another game" to us.



SJSU wins.

So let me try to follow this logic since I have difficulty ever following it - your logic.





USU beat Utah who beat BYU with an injured QB on both teams. BYU beat USU with a freshman QB leading the way. USU beat SJSU - therefore, obviously, SJSU will beat BYU led by Jake Kuresa.



A Certainty, for sure.



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Once again you over complicate things. Where did I mention Utah?



See, football is about points. The team with the most points wins. Looking at common teams BYU and its opponents have played offers some insight into how well a game may go. SJSU played USU. BYU played USU. It makes logical sense then to compare performances.



SJSU scored 27 points against USU. We scored 6. That's a 21 point difference. Therefore, its safe to assume SJSU offense is much more efficient than ours and capable of scoring more points than BYU.



Now, there is the defensive side of things. We only allowed 3 points against USU. Against USU, SJSU gave up 49. So clearly SJSU's defense is less than average. The opportunity for BYU to score will there as its been most the season. But BYU seems to have trouble scoring even when a defense is giving up yards. Unfortunately you can't count on our offense.



Throw in the fact it's on the road and aside from Stanford, which SJSU nearly beat, this game against SJSU will be one of their biggest of the season. We also creamed them last year, so they'll be out for vengeance. SJSU will be highly motivated. This game won't be a gimmie.



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Gunk wrote:

Gunk wrote:

Gunk wrote:
We'll lose to ND, win GT, and lose to San Jose. At some point along that stretch, probably in the ND game, Riley will go down with another injury.



The coaches certainly have messed things up. Starting with Bronco and his man-crush on Riley and trust in Doman. I hope Bronco has learned from his mistakes.



Sadly, I think Doman keeps his job. Doman will blame a poor OL and an injured/limited QB on the shortcomings of the offense. Doman will get one more year. If he was smart, though, he'd look for a new job during the offseason because I seriously doubt he'll be able to produce much better next season. Cards are stacked against him. Any failures on his part at this point will trump any measure of success. I'd get out of Provo if I was Doman. Always easier to find a job when you have a job.

We're not going to lose to San Jose State. C'mon.

SJSU hung 27 points on USU, that's 3 TDs more than we were able to muster against USU. Yes, it was Hill's first complete game. But do you think Riley will be healthy come the end of November? We've got no kicking game and 3 TDs seems to be our threshold.



Plus, it's at SJSU. We'll be the "big-time" program coming to SJSU. They'll be up for it after we humiliated them last season and pull out all the stops against us. We'll be limping along and it will be "just another game" to us.



SJSU wins.

So let me try to follow this logic since I have difficulty ever following it - your logic.





USU beat Utah who beat BYU with an injured QB on both teams. BYU beat USU with a freshman QB leading the way. USU beat SJSU - therefore, obviously, SJSU will beat BYU led by Jake Kuresa.



A Certainty, for sure.



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Once again you over complicate things. Where did I mention Utah?



See, football is about points. The team with the most points wins. Looking at common teams BYU and its opponents have played offers some insight into how well a game may go. SJSU played USU. BYU played USU. It makes logical sense then to compare performances.



SJSU scored 27 points against USU. We scored 6. That's a 21 point difference. Therefore, its safe to assume SJSU offense is much more efficient than ours and capable of scoring more points than BYU.



Now, there is the defensive side of things. We only allowed 3 points against USU. Against USU, SJSU gave up 49. So clearly SJSU's defense is less than average. The opportunity for BYU to score will there as its been most the season. But BYU seems to have trouble scoring even when a defense is giving up yards. Unfortunately you can't count on our offense.



Throw in the fact it's on the road and aside from Stanford, which SJSU nearly beat, this game against SJSU will be one of their biggest of the season. We also creamed them last year, so they'll be out for vengeance. SJSU will be highly motivated. This game won't be a gimmie.



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Logic doesn't compute well with the Bibster.

Wickchad84087 wrote:
Everyone needs to be careful what you are wishing for with wanting Doman gone. I assume everyone wants to replace Doman with an experienced offensive coordinator with a proven track record. Guess what, we are not going to find one of those because they are already working for BCS schools who pay them more than we pay Bronco. The only way to get an elite offensive coordinator is to hire them as a head coach. So is there someone out there that would be a better fit as a head coach than Bronco?



Who is the last offensive coordinator we hired who was experienced who wasn't the head coach (this excludes Crowton)? Was Scoville experienced? Was Chow experienced? How far are we already going back?



If we get rid of Doman we are starting the process over of rolling the dice on a young inexperienced offensive coordinator. If we get rid of Doman and Bronco and bring in an experienced offensive coordinator as head coach, guess what, we start the same process with a new young defensive coordinator.



My wish list is replace Weber. Let Doman be more aggressive with his play calling and keep Hall on staff as a GA to work with the QBs. Teach the QBs to run out of bounds and slide when it isn't necessary to get an extra yard.



Doman is inexperienced and still learning how to call a game. But I bet he is handcuffed by how aggressive he can be by Bronco. That is the problem with having your head coach be a defensive guy. It's tough to find any wide open offenses that have a HC that is a DC. Look around the NCAA. The wide open aggressive offenses all have HC that are offensive guys.

It is important to keep in mind that college coaches receive a high compensation for their labor...and - in addition to market forces - part of that compensation is related to the demands, scrutiny, and instability of living by results.



Unfortunately for Doman, the RESULTS of his labor have been nothing short of awful. The worst part about it is that there appears to be no light at the end of the tunnel. Quarterbacks are going to drop like flies in this offense.



I really feel like Riley Nelson may be - inadvertently - one of the worst things to happen to BYU football. He is a great kid, good athlete. Designing an offense to his strengths has basically resulted in lots of weakness.



That is what has Doman in hot water.

Gunk wrote:
Once again you over complicate things. Where did I mention Utah?



See, football is about points. The team with the most points wins. Looking at common teams BYU and its opponents have played offers some insight into how well a game may go. SJSU played USU. BYU played USU. It makes logical sense then to compare performances.



SJSU scored 27 points against USU. We scored 6. That's a 21 point difference. Therefore, its safe to assume SJSU offense is much more efficient than ours and capable of scoring more points than BYU.



Now, there is the defensive side of things. We only allowed 3 points against USU. Against USU, SJSU gave up 49. So clearly SJSU's defense is less than average. The opportunity for BYU to score will there as its been most the season. But BYU seems to have trouble scoring even when a defense is giving up yards. Unfortunately you can't count on our offense.



Throw in the fact it's on the road and aside from Stanford, which SJSU nearly beat, this game against SJSU will be one of their biggest of the season. We also creamed them last year, so they'll be out for vengeance. SJSU will be highly motivated. This game won't be a gimmie.



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The problem is, you are saying 2+2=5. You can't discount that some teams match up better against each other. Just because BYU's offense struggled with the match ups against USU doesn't mean it will struggle with the match ups against SJSU. I don't know what the USU vs SJSU score ended up being but I am assuming that USU scored more than 27 against SJSU's defense since I know they won. USU only scored 3 on our defense, what does that tell you about the BYU SJSU matchup? I agree....nothing.

pjmuli wrote:

Everyone needs to be careful what you are wishing for with wanting Doman gone. I assume everyone wants to replace Doman with an experienced offensive coordinator with a proven track record. Guess what, we are not going to find one of those because they are already working for BCS schools who pay them more than we pay Bronco. The only way to get an elite offensive coordinator is to hire them as a head coach. So is there someone out there that would be a better fit as a head coach than Bronco?



Who is the last offensive coordinator we hired who was experienced who wasn't the head coach (this excludes Crowton)? Was Scoville experienced? Was Chow experienced? How far are we already going back?



If we get rid of Doman we are starting the process over of rolling the dice on a young inexperienced offensive coordinator. If we get rid of Doman and Bronco and bring in an experienced offensive coordinator as head coach, guess what, we start the same process with a new young defensive coordinator.



My wish list is replace Weber. Let Doman be more aggressive with his play calling and keep Hall on staff as a GA to work with the QBs. Teach the QBs to run out of bounds and slide when it isn't necessary to get an extra yard.



Doman is inexperienced and still learning how to call a game. But I bet he is handcuffed by how aggressive he can be by Bronco. That is the problem with having your head coach be a defensive guy. It's tough to find any wide open offenses that have a HC that is a DC. Look around the NCAA. The wide open aggressive offenses all have HC that are offensive guys.

It is important to keep in mind that college coaches receive a high compensation for their labor...and - in addition to market forces - part of that compensation is related to the demands, scrutiny, and instability of living by results.



Unfortunately for Doman, the RESULTS of his labor have been nothing short of awful. The worst part about it is that there appears to be no light at the end of the tunnel. Quarterbacks are going to drop like flies in this offense.



I really feel like Riley Nelson may be - inadvertently - one of the worst things to happen to BYU football. He is a great kid, good athlete. Designing an offense to his strengths has basically resulted in lots of weakness.



That is what has Doman in hot water.

Independence is what has him in hot water. The only thing that makes independence viable currently is the ESPN deal, which is ratings driven. BYU laying offensive eggs on national TV weekly is not delivering what ESPN was hoping for. This is year two of an eight year deal, and the way BYU is playing right now, a re-up doesn't look likely, and an early buyout triggered by failing ratings is a growing possibility. Holmoe, Bronco, and the BoT are absolutely smitten with independence, but without the ESPN deal, BYU will become a beggar in the conference shuffle without the "we have ESPN, so we don't need you" card to play.



If there is not some marked, perhaps even drastic, improvement by the bowl season, Doman will be gone. The OSU game was a baby-step in the right direction, but was marred by enough miscues to keep it from lowering the temperature under his seat.

frdbtr wrote:

Once again you over complicate things. Where did I mention Utah?



See, football is about points. The team with the most points wins. Looking at common teams BYU and its opponents have played offers some insight into how well a game may go. SJSU played USU. BYU played USU. It makes logical sense then to compare performances.



SJSU scored 27 points against USU. We scored 6. That's a 21 point difference. Therefore, its safe to assume SJSU offense is much more efficient than ours and capable of scoring more points than BYU.



Now, there is the defensive side of things. We only allowed 3 points against USU. Against USU, SJSU gave up 49. So clearly SJSU's defense is less than average. The opportunity for BYU to score will there as its been most the season. But BYU seems to have trouble scoring even when a defense is giving up yards. Unfortunately you can't count on our offense.



Throw in the fact it's on the road and aside from Stanford, which SJSU nearly beat, this game against SJSU will be one of their biggest of the season. We also creamed them last year, so they'll be out for vengeance. SJSU will be highly motivated. This game won't be a gimmie.



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The problem is, you are saying 2+2=5. You can't discount that some teams match up better against each other. Just because BYU's offense struggled with the match ups against USU doesn't mean it will struggle with the match ups against SJSU. I don't know what the USU vs SJSU score ended up being but I am assuming that USU scored more than 27 against SJSU's defense since I know they won. USU only scored 3 on our defense, what does that tell you about the BYU SJSU matchup? I agree....nothing.

I see...so in looking to form some sort of prediction of how well our team will do against a common opponent I should look at what? Tea leaves? Or better yet, take Riley or Bronco's word for it?



Here, I'll break it down for you a bit more.



BYU mustered 380 total yards against USU; 235 passing and 145 rushing for 1 TD. Granted it was Hill at the helm; so if Riley is on and plays smart we should be okay, assuming Riley is still healthy by mid November.



SJSU logged 471 total yards against USU; 467 passing and 4 rushing for 3 TDs. SJSU obviously likes to throw it and based on their performance against USU seems to have some ability to do so. If our defense had a weakness, it's defending the pass.



USU's defense is legit. They rank 13th in points allowed. We rank 7th. USU allows 322 yards/game. We're at 260. Similar to BYU, USU does a good job at stopping the rush. USU has allowed a total of 2,255 yards; 1574 passing yards and 681 rushing yards. BYU has allowed 1826 total yards; 1351 passing yards and 475 rushing yards.



What interesting is if you look at the ratio of rushing yards to total yards between the two defenses we see that 30% of the yards USU allows come on the ground and 26% of the yards BYU allows are rushing yards. Basically, USU and BYU's defenses are rather comparable. Both do a solid job of stopping the run, but their Achilles heel is passing. Yes, I know in general there are more passing than rushing yards allowed in football.



SJSU threw the book at USU, quite literally and moved the ball against USU much, much better than we did. Given the similarities between USU and BYU's defense you can't just dismiss USU as having a poor defense and BYU's defense being able to hold SJSU.



Yes, we will likely be able to keep SJSU in check. Yes, SJSU probably won't score as many points on us as they did on USU. That's why I think this game will come down to how well BYU can move the ball against SJSU. How many mistakes we make and whether we shoot ourselves in the foot or not. Healthy Riley vs Riley vs Lark.



No, this isn't a 2+2=4 analysis, but it does show us something a bit closer to reality than tea leaves, ego, or gut instincts.



Again, on the road, against a highly motivates SJSU could mean trouble for us. Do any of us really have any confidence in our offense? BTW, SJSU allows 22.7 pts/game. 3 TDS seems to be our max. Given our horrible kicking game, this one could be close.

Our offensive woes stem not just from Riley but pass protection and run blocking afforded by our OL. The line has been in transition all year. Tushaus started at center, Reynolds at LG, B. Stringham replaced him, who was then replaced by F. Anae who has been replaced by Manaaki Vaitai. That's our 3rd string backup now a starter. Hansen moved from RG to center. Solomone Kafu is now playing the other guard spot. These guys weren't even on the same line in Spring or Fall ball.



Our RB depth suffered big loss with Alisa breaking his arm, Hine injurying his ham string, and Foote with back problems. Presently we have Williams followed by Foote, Pritchard, Lasike and Mendenhall - not exactly fear inducing backup runners.



Riley's performance has also been related to playing injured. Getting pounded wasn't from running as much as getting sacked by Weber State, UT, BSU lineman, and we can attribute many of his off kilter passes to throwing under duress, having arm hit or passes tipped. Many of his fumbles as well are from getting sacked. The only reason we are even getting points is the mobile QB in Riley and Hill that can manage to deftly sidestep or escape DL. When the OL starts to become cohesive as a unit, then we will see drastic improvement with our QBs - similar to what Vaz did with OSU's protection plan. In the meantime, Riley must avoid forcing the issue by trying to thread the needle or throwing passes into coverage as he is being dragged down by a tackler. If he can do thils, we will be alright!!!



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Gunk wrote:
Again, on the road, against a highly motivates SJSU could mean trouble for us. Do any of us really have any confidence in our offense? BTW, SJSU allows 22.7 pts/game. 3 TDS seems to be our max. Given our horrible kicking game, this one could be close.

I'm not sure tht we can call this a true "road" game.... I'm willing to bet that the stadium will be 50% BYU

byucougar1 wrote:
Our offensive woes stem not just from Riley but pass protection and run blocking afforded by our OL. The line has been in transition all year. Tushaus started at center, Reynolds at LG, B. Stringham replaced him, who was then replaced by F. Anae who has been replaced by Manaaki Vaitai. That's our 3rd string backup now a starter. Hansen moved from RG to center. Solomone Kafu is now playing the other guard spot. These guys weren't even on the same line in Spring or Fall ball.



Our RB depth suffered big loss with Alisa breaking his arm, Hine injurying his ham string, and Foote with back problems. Presently we have Williams followed by Foote, Pritchard, Lasike and Mendenhall - not exactly fear inducing backup runners.



Riley's performance has also been related to playing injured. Getting pounded wasn't from running as much as getting sacked by Weber State, UT, BSU lineman, and we can attribute many of his off kilter passes to throwing under duress, having arm hit or passes tipped. Many of his fumbles as well are from getting sacked. The only reason we are even getting points is the mobile QB in Riley and Hill that can manage to deftly sidestep or escape DL. When the OL starts to become cohesive as a unit, then we will see drastic improvement with our QBs - similar to what Vaz did with OSU's protection plan. In the meantime, Riley must avoid forcing the issue by trying to thread the needle or throwing passes into coverage as he is being dragged down by a tackler. If he can do thils, we will be alright!!!



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You missed a couple key points. OSU had max protection and mostly sent two WR and occassionally a TE downfield. And those WR at OSU will both play in the NFL. We might have one--maybe.

pjmuli wrote:


Unfortunately for Doman, the RESULTS of his labor have been nothing short of awful. The worst part about it is that there appears to be no light at the end of the tunnel. Quarterbacks are going to drop like flies in this offense.



I really feel like Riley Nelson may be - inadvertently - one of the worst things to happen to BYU football. He is a great kid, good athlete. Designing an offense to his strengths has basically resulted in lots of weakness.



That is what has Doman in hot water.

I agree with this, but I place the blame on Bronco, and I think fans should as well. Doman has been saddled with Riley, by Bronco. Bronco should be in the hot water.



Go back and review Doman's comments over the summer about Riley and even in season about Riley, and how he needs to limit turnovers, pick his spots to take chances better, be more conservative with running, take better care of the ball. And then see where Riley said he will "agree to disagree" with his coach. Really? Take coaching well do ya, Riley?!



And what has Bronco done to cause the issue? He has undermined Doman publically repeatedly. He talks about Rileys's "grit", and about his ability to make plays with his legs, and about his leadership, but nowhere--and I mean nowhere--does Bronco ever critique Riley and his style of play. Not only that, he goes out of his way to say that RIley is starter, that he can't imagine a scenario where RIley is not the starter. In other words, Riley gets a blank check from the head coach, with zero accountability required. In spite of mutliple turnover games, horrific decision making at times, injury prone play, the head coach will not bench him ever if healthy. And that is not acceptable.



I am sorry, but I blame Brnco forthte "cult of Riley" mess me are in right now. Buck stops with him. He blew it with how he handles Riley. It started in 2010, got worse in 2011, and 2012 has been teh clusterbomb of errors that torpedoed the season.



But Riley is the starter, per Bronco. WIth no scenario imagined that he isn't.

Utah State got 13 sacks against SJSU. That should pretty much end the conversation about SJSU having a chance to beat BYU.

Wickchad84087 wrote:
Utah State got 13 sacks against SJSU. That should pretty much end the conversation about SJSU having a chance to beat BYU.

LOL



SJSU got sacked 13 times and still delivered 100 more yards of offense and 3 TDs more than we did. I don't see how that ends the conversation.



BYU got sacked what 2 or 3 times by USU and barely moved the ball.

Gunk wrote:

Gunk wrote:

Gunk wrote:
We'll lose to ND, win GT, and lose to San Jose. At some point along that stretch, probably in the ND game, Riley will go down with another injury.



The coaches certainly have messed things up. Starting with Bronco and his man-crush on Riley and trust in Doman. I hope Bronco has learned from his mistakes.



Sadly, I think Doman keeps his job. Doman will blame a poor OL and an injured/limited QB on the shortcomings of the offense. Doman will get one more year. If he was smart, though, he'd look for a new job during the offseason because I seriously doubt he'll be able to produce much better next season. Cards are stacked against him. Any failures on his part at this point will trump any measure of success. I'd get out of Provo if I was Doman. Always easier to find a job when you have a job.

We're not going to lose to San Jose State. C'mon.

SJSU hung 27 points on USU, that's 3 TDs more than we were able to muster against USU. Yes, it was Hill's first complete game. But do you think Riley will be healthy come the end of November? We've got no kicking game and 3 TDs seems to be our threshold.



Plus, it's at SJSU. We'll be the "big-time" program coming to SJSU. They'll be up for it after we humiliated them last season and pull out all the stops against us. We'll be limping along and it will be "just another game" to us.



SJSU wins.

So let me try to follow this logic since I have difficulty ever following it - your logic.





USU beat Utah who beat BYU with an injured QB on both teams. BYU beat USU with a freshman QB leading the way. USU beat SJSU - therefore, obviously, SJSU will beat BYU led by Jake Kuresa.



A Certainty, for sure.



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Once again you over complicate things. Where did I mention Utah?



See, football is about points. The team with the most points wins. Looking at common teams BYU and its opponents have played offers some insight into how well a game may go. SJSU played USU. BYU played USU. It makes logical sense then to compare performances.



SJSU scored 27 points against USU. We scored 6. That's a 21 point difference. Therefore, its safe to assume SJSU offense is much more efficient than ours and capable of scoring more points than BYU.



Now, there is the defensive side of things. We only allowed 3 points against USU. Against USU, SJSU gave up 49. So clearly SJSU's defense is less than average. The opportunity for BYU to score will there as its been most the season. But BYU seems to have trouble scoring even when a defense is giving up yards. Unfortunately you can't count on our offense.



Throw in the fact it's on the road and aside from Stanford, which SJSU nearly beat, this game against SJSU will be one of their biggest of the season. We also creamed them last year, so they'll be out for vengeance. SJSU will be highly motivated. This game won't be a gimmie.



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It won't be a gimme. You guaranteed an SJSU win.



Let me simplify this for you - since your lack of logic is astounding.



Yes it is about points. Points scored - Points allowed = points differential.



Even simpler We Beat USU. USU beat SJSU.



It does not get any simpler.



I expect a close game - hard fought - either team could win - I will make a prediction after an injury update a week before the game. Both teams lack depth in key areas.



CLANK.



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snoscythe wrote:

Wickchad84087 wrote:
Everyone needs to be careful what you are wishing for with wanting Doman gone. I assume everyone wants to replace Doman with an experienced offensive coordinator with a proven track record. Guess what, we are not going to find one of those because they are already working for BCS schools who pay them more than we pay Bronco. The only way to get an elite offensive coordinator is to hire them as a head coach. So is there someone out there that would be a better fit as a head coach than Bronco?



Who is the last offensive coordinator we hired who was experienced who wasn't the head coach (this excludes Crowton)? Was Scoville experienced? Was Chow experienced? How far are we already going back?



If we get rid of Doman we are starting the process over of rolling the dice on a young inexperienced offensive coordinator. If we get rid of Doman and Bronco and bring in an experienced offensive coordinator as head coach, guess what, we start the same process with a new young defensive coordinator.



My wish list is replace Weber. Let Doman be more aggressive with his play calling and keep Hall on staff as a GA to work with the QBs. Teach the QBs to run out of bounds and slide when it isn't necessary to get an extra yard.



Doman is inexperienced and still learning how to call a game. But I bet he is handcuffed by how aggressive he can be by Bronco. That is the problem with having your head coach be a defensive guy. It's tough to find any wide open offenses that have a HC that is a DC. Look around the NCAA. The wide open aggressive offenses all have HC that are offensive guys.

It is important to keep in mind that college coaches receive a high compensation for their labor...and - in addition to market forces - part of that compensation is related to the demands, scrutiny, and instability of living by results.



Unfortunately for Doman, the RESULTS of his labor have been nothing short of awful. The worst part about it is that there appears to be no light at the end of the tunnel. Quarterbacks are going to drop like flies in this offense.



I really feel like Riley Nelson may be - inadvertently - one of the worst things to happen to BYU football. He is a great kid, good athlete. Designing an offense to his strengths has basically resulted in lots of weakness.



That is what has Doman in hot water.

Independence is what has him in hot water. The only thing that makes independence viable currently is the ESPN deal, which is ratings driven. BYU laying offensive eggs on national TV weekly is not delivering what ESPN was hoping for. This is year two of an eight year deal, and the way BYU is playing right now, a re-up doesn't look likely, and an early buyout triggered by failing ratings is a growing possibility. Holmoe, Bronco, and the BoT are absolutely smitten with independence, but without the ESPN deal, BYU will become a beggar in the conference shuffle without the "we have ESPN, so we don't need you" card to play.



If there is not some marked, perhaps even drastic, improvement by the bowl season, Doman will be gone. The OSU game was a baby-step in the right direction, but was marred by enough miscues to keep it from lowering the temperature under his seat.

I predict - make that - I guarantee an offensive explosion after the GT game that will last until after Christmas. Guarantee it. SOS is what has Doman on the hot seat and 2013 should have everyone from Holmoe on down squirming.



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Cougarbib wrote:


It won't be a gimme. You guaranteed an SJSU win.



Let me simplify this for you - since your lack of logic is astounding.



Yes it is about points. Points scored - Points allowed = points differential.



Even simpler We Beat USU. USU beat SJSU.



It does not get any simpler.



I expect a close game - hard fought - either team could win - I will make a prediction after an injury update a week before the game. Both teams lack depth in key areas.



CLANK.



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I predicted SJSU would win. Where did I "guarentee" a SJSU win?



Your "simple" logic doesn't take into account yards and production. I'm looking into the amount of points, yards, etc. SJSU was able to produce against USU and comparing it to the amount of points, yards, etc. we produced against USU. How is that not logical? :skeptic:



SJSU's output trumps ours. They put up 100 more yards, 2 TDs and 2 FGs more than we did. We didn't even get the PAT. If that doesn't give anyone cause for concern then their heads really are in the sand. SJSU's offense out paced ours by a mile, despite the QB getting sacked 13 times.



Just because we beat USU (barely) and USU beat SJSU doesn't mean SJSU isn't going to be able to hang more points on us. You're throwing out yards and production and simply looking at the box score - very BCS of you.



Your logic resembles Kwhitt's where apparently the athletic ability of players can be determined by what conference they're in. Nevermind how big or fast they are. :roll:

I already thought the offense was exploding, as in blowing up into unrecognizable pieces. ;-)

Cougarbib wrote:
I predict - make that - I guarantee an offensive explosion after the GT game that will last until after Christmas. Guarantee it. SOS is what has Doman on the hot seat and 2013 should have everyone from Holmoe on down squirming.

We saw the same thing last year. It, of course, reinforces what everyone is griping about when it comes to BYU - we look like world beaters against low hanging fruit.

KingCoug wrote:

I predict - make that - I guarantee an offensive explosion after the GT game that will last until after Christmas. Guarantee it. SOS is what has Doman on the hot seat and 2013 should have everyone from Holmoe on down squirming.

We saw the same thing last year. It, of course, reinforces what everyone is griping about when it comes to BYU - we look like world beaters against low hanging fruit.

There is much more than points not being scored going wrong with thus offense. Cupcakes to end the season won't save Doman.



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Gunk wrote:

Gunk wrote:
Once again you over complicate things. Where did I mention Utah?



See, football is about points. The team with the most points wins. Looking at common teams BYU and its opponents have played offers some insight into how well a game may go. SJSU played USU. BYU played USU. It makes logical sense then to compare performances.



SJSU scored 27 points against USU. We scored 6. That's a 21 point difference. Therefore, its safe to assume SJSU offense is much more efficient than ours and capable of scoring more points than BYU.



Now, there is the defensive side of things. We only allowed 3 points against USU. Against USU, SJSU gave up 49. So clearly SJSU's defense is less than average. The opportunity for BYU to score will there as its been most the season. But BYU seems to have trouble scoring even when a defense is giving up yards. Unfortunately you can't count on our offense.



Throw in the fact it's on the road and aside from Stanford, which SJSU nearly beat, this game against SJSU will be one of their biggest of the season. We also creamed them last year, so they'll be out for vengeance. SJSU will be highly motivated. This game won't be a gimmie.



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The problem is, you are saying 2+2=5. You can't discount that some teams match up better against each other. Just because BYU's offense struggled with the match ups against USU doesn't mean it will struggle with the match ups against SJSU. I don't know what the USU vs SJSU score ended up being but I am assuming that USU scored more than 27 against SJSU's defense since I know they won. USU only scored 3 on our defense, what does that tell you about the BYU SJSU matchup? I agree....nothing.

I see...so in looking to form some sort of prediction of how well our team will do against a common opponent I should look at what? Tea leaves? Or better yet, take Riley or Bronco's word for it?



Here, I'll break it down for you a bit more.



BYU mustered 380 total yards against USU; 235 passing and 145 rushing for 1 TD. Granted it was Hill at the helm; so if Riley is on and plays smart we should be okay, assuming Riley is still healthy by mid November.



SJSU logged 471 total yards against USU; 467 passing and 4 rushing for 3 TDs. SJSU obviously likes to throw it and based on their performance against USU seems to have some ability to do so. If our defense had a weakness, it's defending the pass.



USU's defense is legit. They rank 13th in points allowed. We rank 7th. USU allows 322 yards/game. We're at 260. Similar to BYU, USU does a good job at stopping the rush. USU has allowed a total of 2,255 yards; 1574 passing yards and 681 rushing yards. BYU has allowed 1826 total yards; 1351 passing yards and 475 rushing yards.



What interesting is if you look at the ratio of rushing yards to total yards between the two defenses we see that 30% of the yards USU allows come on the ground and 26% of the yards BYU allows are rushing yards. Basically, USU and BYU's defenses are rather comparable. Both do a solid job of stopping the run, but their Achilles heel is passing. Yes, I know in general there are more passing than rushing yards allowed in football.



SJSU threw the book at USU, quite literally and moved the ball against USU much, much better than we did. Given the similarities between USU and BYU's defense you can't just dismiss USU as having a poor defense and BYU's defense being able to hold SJSU.



Yes, we will likely be able to keep SJSU in check. Yes, SJSU probably won't score as many points on us as they did on USU. That's why I think this game will come down to how well BYU can move the ball against SJSU. How many mistakes we make and whether we shoot ourselves in the foot or not. Healthy Riley vs Riley vs Lark.



No, this isn't a 2+2=4 analysis, but it does show us something a bit closer to reality than tea leaves, ego, or gut instincts.



Again, on the road, against a highly motivates SJSU could mean trouble for us. Do any of us really have any confidence in our offense? BTW, SJSU allows 22.7 pts/game. 3 TDS seems to be our max. Given our horrible kicking game, this one could be close.

Just out of curiosity, what would a yards/points comparison have predicted for BYU vs. USU, based on each team's numbers v. Utah?

snoscythe wrote:
There is much more than points not being scored going wrong with thus offense. Cupcakes to end the season won't save Doman.

Either way, for better or worse, I think he's already "saved" for one more year.