This Team Is Better Than Expected

Cougarbib wrote:

stuckinbig10country wrote:
This team is better than the Jimmer/Emery senior team. There I said it. Haws is really, really good. I honestly think had he waited a year to go on a mission, BYU probably loses maybe one game that whole year and would probably have made the final 4 instead of the sweet 16, even with losing Davies.

Long season, I'll be happy to get to the dance and beat Gonzaga and St. Mary's at home. I will wait to say a thing about this teams prospects until they leave Kansas City. Our frontcourt is still a problem particularly depth and our guards still can't contain solid penetrators.

Yes. And FT % has been poor. The schedule is the schedule. Predictions are not perfect. The information is not perfect. What is the range of your expected number of wins?



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25 isn't unreasonable, but depending on who the Ls are to, 25 might not be enough to get a dance ticket. We'll know a ton more about this team after the non-con is over and we've seen our performances against Texas, Wichita State, Utah, Oregon, Utah State. I'm pleased with the direction of the team but hardly giddy; I see a lot of weaknesses still. Good shooting can make up for weaknesses... can we consistently shoot like we did against Stanford? Unlikely.. but if we do, watch out.

* I meant that I have watched every game this team has played, for the last 2 years. I've been watching sports for a teensy bit longer than that... ;)

This team wins 30. I'm calling my shot.

Even though I think the team is better, I'm not sure that will mean they get beyond the sweet 16. Haws is a match-up nightmare for anyone that is on the schedule, Carlino appears to have figured out how to be consistent, KC does everything well, they appear to be a better rebounding team (KC and Carlino rebound very well from the guard line), they aren't as reliant on one player to be exceptional every night to win any game (basically Jimmer wasn't as bad on defense as people thought, but he couldn't give any energy on defense because he had to be spectacular on offense), they have a far superior bench, they will be a better team defensively (not PPG, but that's because of rule changes more than anything), and with the freedom of movement rules being implemented Rose's offense will be so much fun to watch.

BlueIsBetter wrote:
This team wins 30. I'm calling my shot.

BYU plays 31 games, not counting our 2 Exibition Games plus WCC Tournament games plus Post Season Tournament games. Not sure how many total games we will play - probably 34-36 games.



I presume your prediction of 30 wins does not include exhibition games but does include WCC Tournament and Post Season tournament games.



My prediction of 25 Wins or More included the WCC Tournament but not the Post Season Tournament as I was not willing to make that final call on 2 games data and not knowing our seed and opponent. Right now, I will assume a crappy seed and a 1 and done. I reserve the right to get more optimistic when we have more data. We will Dance.



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BlueIsBetter wrote:
* I meant that I have watched every game this team has played, for the last 2 years. I've been watching sports for a teensy bit longer than that... ;)

Just giving you a hard time. ;)



I like the optimism.

Wow such optimism going around.

I have some concerns so the verdict is out for me on win/loss totals.

Our defense doesn't look good so far. Add in the new rule change and you better have a good bench. I think Mika is gonna have a hard time staying on the floor as well as Austin. Worthington will need to step up as will Sharp.

The pace we play at is concerning later in the season. Tourney games in the WCC and the NIT/NCAA will be brutal. Once again production from our bench will be key.



Run and gun teams also need to shoot well to win. You give the other teams alot of chances to score. Byu up 19 on Stanford and we let them back in I think due to our pace and quick missed shots. We need to have a half court game we can rely on when we get a lead.

stgeorgefan wrote:
Wow such optimism going around.

I have some concerns so the verdict is out for me on win/loss totals.

Our defense doesn't look good so far. Add in the new rule change and you better have a good bench. I think Mika is gonna have a hard time staying on the floor as well as Austin. Worthington will need to step up as will Sharp.

The pace we play at is concerning later in the season. Tourney games in the WCC and the NIT/NCAA will be brutal. Once again production from our bench will be key.



Run and gun teams also need to shoot well to win. You give the other teams alot of chances to score. Byu up 19 on Stanford and we let them back in I think due to our pace and quick missed shots. We need to have a half court game we can rely on when we get a lead.

If up by 15 with 2 min to go, Rose needs to put the brakes on. That's poor clock management. If up by 5 the brakes should still be applied! No reason to rush down the court and get a shot off within 5 seconds. We let Stanford come back.



Fine, our half court offense sucks, I'd still rather we pass the ball around for 35 seconds and hand the ball over to the opponent than squeeze 3 possessions into the same 35 seconds. With two min left it should be a 4 possession ball game. Instead, Stanford got 8+ possessions because of poor clock management on our end.



That will cost us in closer games, which is one of the reasons I'm not drooling over this year's team...yet.



Imagine giving GU or SMC 8 possessions in the final 2 min of a game. That would kill us.

Gunk wrote:

Wow such optimism going around.

I have some concerns so the verdict is out for me on win/loss totals.

Our defense doesn't look good so far. Add in the new rule change and you better have a good bench. I think Mika is gonna have a hard time staying on the floor as well as Austin. Worthington will need to step up as will Sharp.

The pace we play at is concerning later in the season. Tourney games in the WCC and the NIT/NCAA will be brutal. Once again production from our bench will be key.



Run and gun teams also need to shoot well to win. You give the other teams alot of chances to score. Byu up 19 on Stanford and we let them back in I think due to our pace and quick missed shots. We need to have a half court game we can rely on when we get a lead.

If up by 15 with 2 min to go, Rose needs to put the brakes on. That's poor clock management. If up by 5 the brakes should still be applied! No reason to rush down the court and get a shot off within 5 seconds. We let Stanford come back.



Fine, our half court offense sucks, I'd still rather we pass the ball around for 35 seconds and hand the ball over to the opponent than squeeze 3 possessions into the same 35 seconds. With two min left it should be a 4 possession ball game. Instead, Stanford got 8+ possessions because of poor clock management on our end.



That will cost us in closer games, which is one of the reasons I'm not drooling over this year's team...yet.



Imagine giving GU or SMC 8 possessions in the final 2 min of a game. That would kill us.

That - switching to 35 seconds and throwing up a prayer - would be a simple enough change to make - except for the bigger problem - free throw shooting. Harder to fix that.



So call your shot



Stuck implied Sweet 16 or better but no specific win total - past would indicate 30+ to pull that off

Blue called for 30 again this year

Mizzou called for 25 Easy

Bib aka I called for 25 or More including WCC Tournament games

Craig O - says 25 is not unreasonable but seemed hesitant to predict it



What is your best guess?

Cougarbib wrote:

stgeorgefan wrote:
Wow such optimism going around.

I have some concerns so the verdict is out for me on win/loss totals.

Our defense doesn't look good so far. Add in the new rule change and you better have a good bench. I think Mika is gonna have a hard time staying on the floor as well as Austin. Worthington will need to step up as will Sharp.

The pace we play at is concerning later in the season. Tourney games in the WCC and the NIT/NCAA will be brutal. Once again production from our bench will be key.



Run and gun teams also need to shoot well to win. You give the other teams alot of chances to score. Byu up 19 on Stanford and we let them back in I think due to our pace and quick missed shots. We need to have a half court game we can rely on when we get a lead.

If up by 15 with 2 min to go, Rose needs to put the brakes on. That's poor clock management. If up by 5 the brakes should still be applied! No reason to rush down the court and get a shot off within 5 seconds. We let Stanford come back.



Fine, our half court offense sucks, I'd still rather we pass the ball around for 35 seconds and hand the ball over to the opponent than squeeze 3 possessions into the same 35 seconds. With two min left it should be a 4 possession ball game. Instead, Stanford got 8+ possessions because of poor clock management on our end.



That will cost us in closer games, which is one of the reasons I'm not drooling over this year's team...yet.



Imagine giving GU or SMC 8 possessions in the final 2 min of a game. That would kill us.

That - switching to 35 seconds and throwing up a prayer - would be a simple enough change to make - except for the bigger problem - free throw shooting. Harder to fix that.



So call your shot



Stuck implied Sweet 16 or better but no specific win total - past would indicate 30+ to pull that off

Blue called for 30 again this year

Mizzou called for 25 Easy

Bib aka I called for 25 or More

Craig O - says 25 is not unreasonable but seemed hesitant to predict it



What is your best guess?

25 wins before the WCC tournament seems about right. That would be 5 losses.



We split GU and SMC, probably drop Oregon and a couple of others. 24 is probably more likely.



We pick up 25 wins heading into the WCC tournament, pick up 2 or 3 more and we'll likely be dancing.

This team actually has the best half court offense I have seen in the better part of a decade. The guards are actually weaving in and out looking for the ball. I haven't seen this since before Jimmer. It used to be that run and gun was our only option, and then watch as Jimmer or Carlino hucked up a 30 footer.



As far as the Stanford game goes, Stanford is a pretty good team, and I don't think that it should be overlooked that a non-conference opponent went into a Pac 12 building and won with Pac 12 refs officiating. That was some of the most inconsistently bad reffing I have seen in a long time. They called the tackiest fouls, then looked the other way when Haws or Carlino got body slammed into the hardwood.



Another poster (I think it was Craig) mentioned that it was at Stanford "and the refs knew it was at Stanford". And he was right. That game went fully in Stanfords favor. If the refs slept in and missed the game we would have beat Stanford by about 40. We (Carlino) were unstoppable until they benched him with SUPER ticky tacky fouls early in the first half.

Somebody felt that 10 games are needed to measure this team. 2 is not many. The next 2 will not measure much. Gimmes. Stanford soundly beatin Northwestern on the same court we beat Stanford adds a bit of confirmation.



But games 5, 6, 7, and 8 will all be solid opponents. Then another gimme. Then game 10 UMASS iirc. Iowa State is game 5 in Provo. Texas and either Depaul or Wichita State are games 6 and 7 in KC Tournament. USU in SLC Energy Solutions Arena is game 8. Then N. Texas in Provo and UMass on the road.



It will be fun to see how that 5-8 stretch goes after these next 2 practice games help us work out a few kinks and build confidence.



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BlueIsBetter wrote:
This team actually has the best half court offense I have seen in the better part of a decade. The guards are actually weaving in and out looking for the ball. I haven't seen this since before Jimmer. It used to be that run and gun was our only option, and then watch as Jimmer or Carlino hucked up a 30 footer.



As far as the Stanford game goes, Stanford is a pretty good team, and I don't think that it should be overlooked that a non-conference opponent went into a Pac 12 building and won with Pac 12 refs officiating. That was some of the most inconsistently bad reffing I have seen in a long time. They called the tackiest fouls, then looked the other way when Haws or Carlino got body slammed into the hardwood.



Another poster (I think it was Craig) mentioned that it was at Stanford "and the refs knew it was at Stanford". And he was right. That game went fully in Stanfords favor. If the refs slept in and missed the game we would have beat Stanford by about 40. We (Carlino) were unstoppable until they benched him with SUPER ticky tacky fouls early in the first half.

After watching the Northwestern game, I feel bad for Stanford. They have talent, but their coaching is mediocre at best. What's their style? Who's their go to guy? They don't know. If they need a bucket, they seem to wing it. They went to Nastic last night for a 3rd of the game, but the dude has terrible hands and makes poor decisions with the ball. Huestis was taking 3 point shots and was the leading scorer, but he would be the 6th best shooter on our team. They have the athletes to play our style of hoops, but their half court style is a mess.



I think what you'll see with Stanford is some bone headed losses and a few amazing wins. They could as easily beat Arizona as they could lose to Arizona by 30. That's coaching and good coaches don't allow that to happen.



Dwight Powell is a 6'10" inside outside guy with serious NBA potential (there's nothing Brandon Davies can do that Powell couldn't do better), yet from game to game he doesn't have an identity. I would do with him what BYU does with Haws. He needs to touch the ball on every half court possession. He doesn't have to shoot it, but he has to have a chance. When I see a guy go to the pros and perform better than he did in college, the 1st thing I think is "He was not coached properly and not used properly in college." ...



I rewatched the Stanford game and while we won, I was still upset with a lot of our negative possessions. We still dont' value the ball as well as we need to. Haws doesn't get involved in as many half court possessions as he needs to (especially with the new rules, you want your best player with more touches) and we turned the ball over on way too many fast break possessions. Another negative; Halford didn't pay as much as he deserves. I love how efficient he is. I trust him more than Winder and Bartley. Obviously free throws and not valuing the clock at the end turned what could have been a 20+ point win into a single digit win, but it's still a quality road win.



Positives, we were aggressive, we were strong against a strong team (Austin played like NIT Austin) and KC shot the ball well (I don't believe in his shot still but against Stanford it went down), Winder, Bartley, made some shots and played solid defense. We know how to get our hands in the passing lanes.



I just need more Cow-Bell (I mean Halford...) He should be our 6th man

Craig

If you are saying that this BYU team has a lot of areas for improvement, we agree. They are young. They will show inconsistency. They will lose some games. That was all expected. The unexpected, as you indicated, are things like how Collinsworth, Winder, Austin, and others have played - so far.



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Cougarbib wrote:
Somebody felt that 10 games are needed to measure this team. 2 is not many.



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Exactly where I stand. Not much game film for others to look at when it comes to gurding Byu/tendencies etc. Also we have 3 true freshman in our rotation, I'd give them half a season beofre they reach their potential for this year.



Imagine if Pheonix Suns fans were judging their team after only 2 games? Or Philly :gross:



Gonzaga is looking real good so far and the WCC as a whole is doing well OOC. I want to see this team more before I write them in the tourney and WCC finals.

craigoscarson wrote:

After watching the Northwestern game, I feel bad for Stanford. They have talent, but their coaching is mediocre at best. What's their style? Who's their go to guy? They don't know. If they need a bucket, they seem to wing it. They went to Nastic last night for a 3rd of the game, but the dude has terrible hands and makes poor decisions with the ball. Huestis was taking 3 point shots and was the leading scorer, but he would be the 6th best shooter on our team. They have the athletes to play our style of hoops, but their half court style is a mess.



I think what you'll see with Stanford is some bone headed losses and a few amazing wins. They could as easily beat Arizona as they could lose to Arizona by 30. That's coaching and good coaches don't allow that to happen.



Dwight Powell is a 6'10" inside outside guy with serious NBA potential (there's nothing Brandon Davies can do that Powell couldn't do better), yet from game to game he doesn't have an identity. I would do with him what BYU does with Haws. He needs to touch the ball on every half court possession. He doesn't have to shoot it, but he has to have a chance. When I see a guy go to the pros and perform better than he did in college, the 1st thing I think is "He was not coached properly and not used properly in college." ...



I rewatched the Stanford game and while we won, I was still upset with a lot of our negative possessions. We still dont' value the ball as well as we need to. Haws doesn't get involved in as many half court possessions as he needs to (especially with the new rules, you want your best player with more touches) and we turned the ball over on way too many fast break possessions. Another negative; Halford didn't pay as much as he deserves. I love how efficient he is. I trust him more than Winder and Bartley. Obviously free throws and not valuing the clock at the end turned what could have been a 20+ point win into a single digit win, but it's still a quality road win.



Positives, we were aggressive, we were strong against a strong team (Austin played like NIT Austin) and KC shot the ball well (I don't believe in his shot still but against Stanford it went down), Winder, Bartley, made some shots and played solid defense. We know how to get our hands in the passing lanes.



I just need more Cow-Bell (I mean Halford...) He should be our 6th man

If I'm Stanford, the game runs through Powell. That guy is amazing. Kept thinking to myself how awesome it would be if we had a player like him. Really too bad for Stanford and for Powell.



Not to discredit our win, but I think a lot of that win had to do with Stanford as much as it had to do with us. In the final min of the game, look how efficient Stanford was when they were focused. True, we didn't do much to help ourselves by way of clock management, but they trimmed a 19 point lead down to under 10 with time left on the clock.



Definitely was a lot of sloppy play. Carlino will probably have to ditch his down court pass this season without Davies running the floor. As much as I like driving to the lane, there seemed to be a lot of driving into traffic with wide open shooters on the wings.



Glad we have a couple of easy ones to work out some kinks and build confidence.

Tonight.



Fresh, Upstart opponent starts hot and has success dictating tempo to leg weary Cougs. Our heart and soul leader is on the bench injured. Cannot buy a 3, but have guys gunning them early in shot clock anyway. Mika off and in early foul trouble. Sloppy play. Poor FT shooting early.



And we beat them by 24 anyway.

Last year, there were many different fan opinions about who should get more PT.



Same thing this year.



Last year it was because we usually had at least two players on the floor that were not much of a threat to draw attention, allowing doubles on Haws, Davies, or Carlino when he got hot. In other words, a difference of opinion about who would be the least of several evils.



The last 2Jimmer years had 1 or 2 marginal players on the floor at times.



This year it is a debate about which good player might be better than another good player.



That is why 25 or more including WCC Tournament still looks probable to me.



BYU 4-0. Sweet.

This team is better than expected. Don't draw too many conclusions beating up the lowly, BYU did that last year as well. But after this coming week, we will find out more how they perform with scouting and tapes. Stanford, like Texas in football, got surprised, along with questionable coaching. ISU won't be caught off guard.

But I'm really liking this team. Would love it if they improved their sharing the ball more. There were some better assists last night, so the msg Rose is, I'm sure sending, is coming around.

KC is much better than the haters and doubters thought. I suggested he would be LIKE Magic Johnson in that he is a matchup problem and can create.

I agree with Bib, this is a 25 win, Big Dancing, team. And who knows maybe BYu can even split with the Zags this year.