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This Team Is Better Than Expected

by Cougarbib · 11/13/2013

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BoiseBYU
We do not have depth in the front court. Past. Austin and Mika we are lacking. When both play so much together, then when the fouls come we are dancing around their time on the bench. But then while Austin is a good rebounder, I'm not sure he's a 5. He gets pushed all over by 5's.
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Cougarbib
craigoscarson wrote:
craigoscarson wrote:
Stanford has only lost to BYU. Beat Houston and gave them their first loss tonight.



Iowa State remains undefeated. We nearly beat them. This is our only loss.



Witchita State will be interesting. They are ranked right there with Gonzaga. Nice measuring stick and preparation opportunity. I am not ready to predict a win vs a legit Top 15 opponent. But I maintain a slim hope. But - sheesh - if we lose to a ranked team on essentially a home game for them - can we try to contain our whining?



We had 5 players in double figures again. Haws and Carlino both over 20. We have more weapons than we have had for a few years.



Anybody else willing to sign up for the Church of the 25+ Win Dance Season?


We're not going to make it to 25 regular season wins. We're a good team, but we're missing some pieces and we're relying on a ton of youth. Fortunately, our RPI is really good so our dance ticket is still possible.


Church Doctrine specifically includes WCC Tournament games in the 25 wins. Are you still out or does that clarification reel you in?



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I think I'm still out, but by a razor thin margin.


The original prediction was 25 including 1 and done at the dance. We have 22 wins now. We will be favored Monday night. Gonzalez is clearly beatable if we figure out how SCU gives them so much trouble. Long shot. But that would be 24. One win in the dance - BAM. 25. Long shot.



Many wrote off the season after the 4 game losing streak - including Hawk. Personally, I am really enjoying this team.
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BOID
So am I, bib. Really enjoying watching this team now. Everybody seems to be contributing. I'm digging the plays, the passes, the put-backs, slashes and crashing the boards, winning when cold at the perimeter. Yeah.



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craigoscarson
Cougarbib wrote:
This team is better than the Jimmer/Emery senior team. There I said it. Haws is really, really good. I honestly think had he waited a year to go on a mission, BYU probably loses maybe one game that whole year and would probably have made the final 4 instead of the sweet 16, even with losing Davies.


I thought I was bold predicting 25 wins and a Dance Ticket.



Seems like you are predicting Elite 8.



That is bold. Very bold this early.



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25 wins and a Dance Ticket
Fairly sure the 25 prognostication didn't include tourney games,post WCC... and still your odds are about 25% to get there. Better than 2 weeks ago, but still unlikely and again not at all by a healthy margin. I hope beyond hope that you're right... but like I said at the beginning of the season, we're not a complete team and we would miss it by a razor thin margin.
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Cougarbib
It did include the Dance. See OP. But, I assumed 1 and done for the Dance. So, if by a miracle, they do get to 25, it will be fewer regular season wins and more Tournament wins than the path I expected. I agree with your odds of getting there. If I had looked at the OOC schedule and anticipated the improved WCC middle, I would have predicted 3 less wins.



If BYU hits 25 - pretty impressive given what they had to work with.



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Cougarbib
Cougarbib wrote:
I'm putting zero stock in what I see right now. It is early in the season. There were some pretty serious rule changes this off season that teams, players, coaches and referees are still adjusting to.



I reserve all judgements until we've played 10 games.


It is early. Very early, as I indicated.



This is why I boldly went out on a limb.



We have 3 guys that I am confident can make things happen and command attention. My only worry would be injury. And even after 10 games, you cannot predict injuries unless we are talking Riley Nelson in foorball. That was predictable.



Everyone knows what Haws can do.

Carlino clearly is starting as strong as - stronger than IMHO - he finished last year.

KC has already shown that mission rust did not keep him from getting even better than where he left off.



Austin, Mika, and the bench - definitely an improvement over last year. Could not help but be an improvement.



The schedule is tougher or I would predict even more wins.



Last year, I took a lot of heat for predicting that 20 would be a stretch - pre tournament - and that they would not be dancing. A lot of heat. Blue is Better even asked if I had even watched that team.



This year - even though I profess to be a realist as always - I think this is a 25 win team that will dance. Too early to predict anything more than in the dance. Not sure they advance.



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Original Projection: Dance - not sure they advance.



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Cougarbib
Cougarbib wrote:
It is early. Rule changes may help or hurt as it settles in. Teams may or may not figure out how to slow or stop us. We may not alwsys shoot threes and ourside shots this well or free throws this poorly. We may have more or less foul trouble. We may or may not dfend betyer or worse. Injuries may or may not come.



It really is early.



Gonna go out on a limb.



25 Wins or Better



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OP: 25 or better



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stuckinbig10country
I think this team is exactly why you need a dynamic star. I think Tyler has a much higher ceiling than Jimmer, but Jimmer had that something extra. I said that this team was a better team than the sweet 16 team a few years back, but man they miss the one player.



It's not Haws. It's either got to be Matty or it's got to be KC. KC was money on Saturday. Can he be that guy going forward?



This team next year, if either Matt or KC step up, will be a sweet 16 team.
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Cougarbib
stuckinbig10country wrote:
I think this team is exactly why you need a dynamic star. I think Tyler has a much higher ceiling than Jimmer, but Jimmer had that something extra. I said that this team was a better team than the sweet 16 team a few years back, but man they miss the one player.



It's not Haws. It's either got to be Matty or it's got to be KC. KC was money on Saturday. Can he be that guy going forward?



This team next year, if either Matt or KC step up, will be a sweet 16 team.


BYU will definitely have Sweet 16 guards next season. They may come up short up front - especially depth.



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mizzoucoug
stuckinbig10country wrote:
I think this team is exactly why you need a dynamic star. I think Tyler has a much higher ceiling than Jimmer, but Jimmer had that something extra. I said that this team was a better team than the sweet 16 team a few years back, but man they miss the one player.



It's not Haws. It's either got to be Matty or it's got to be KC. KC was money on Saturday. Can he be that guy going forward?



This team next year, if either Matt or KC step up, will be a sweet 16 team.


Higher ceiling than Jimmer? No way. Jimmer's ceiling was much higher but he never met it because he stopped playing D. Haws' D sucks too, but he's never been good so for him it's non-voluntary suckage. The kid has an amazing jumper but honestly that's about it as far as his potential.
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craigoscarson
stuckinbig10country wrote:
I think this team is exactly why you need a dynamic star. I think Tyler has a much higher ceiling than Jimmer, but Jimmer had that something extra. I said that this team was a better team than the sweet 16 team a few years back, but man they miss the one player.



It's not Haws. It's either got to be Matty or it's got to be KC. KC was money on Saturday. Can he be that guy going forward?



This team next year, if either Matt or KC step up, will be a sweet 16 team.


KC has a higher ceiling than Haws as a player. Haws is an overachiever and has always been near his ceiling when he plays... what you see is what you get. He is a college stud but a straight to Europe player.



KC has a chance to be a NBAer in the mold of Ginobili, and has 2 more years to put together a jump shot.



But this is why this team is now dangerous. KC has figured it out (all except the free throws) but he does so much you simply cannot focus your D on Tyler.
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Cougarbib
craigoscarson wrote:
I think this team is exactly why you need a dynamic star. I think Tyler has a much higher ceiling than Jimmer, but Jimmer had that something extra. I said that this team was a better team than the sweet 16 team a few years back, but man they miss the one player.



It's not Haws. It's either got to be Matty or it's got to be KC. KC was money on Saturday. Can he be that guy going forward?



This team next year, if either Matt or KC step up, will be a sweet 16 team.


KC has a higher ceiling than Haws as a player. Haws is an overachiever and has always been near his ceiling when he plays... what you see is what you get. He is a college stud but a straight to Europe player.



KC has a chance to be a NBAer in the mold of Ginobili, and has 2 more years to put together a jump shot.



But this is why this team is now dangerous. KC has figured it out (all except the free throws) but he does so much you simply cannot focus your D on Tyler.


Luckily, he figured out the free throws tonight. I was as shocked as I was happy for him.
Q
Qman
craigoscarson wrote:
I think this team is exactly why you need a dynamic star. I think Tyler has a much higher ceiling than Jimmer, but Jimmer had that something extra. I said that this team was a better team than the sweet 16 team a few years back, but man they miss the one player.



It's not Haws. It's either got to be Matty or it's got to be KC. KC was money on Saturday. Can he be that guy going forward?



This team next year, if either Matt or KC step up, will be a sweet 16 team.


KC has a higher ceiling than Haws as a player. Haws is an overachiever and has always been near his ceiling when he plays... what you see is what you get. He is a college stud but a straight to Europe player.



KC has a chance to be a NBAer in the mold of Ginobili, and has 2 more years to put together a jump shot.



But this is why this team is now dangerous. KC has figured it out (all except the free throws) but he does so much you simply cannot focus your D on Tyler.


Haws has maximized his potential. He should be able to make some money in Europe with his scoring ability.



I agree KC has NBA potential but I don't see very much Ginobili in his game. A little like Evan Turner maybe? A poor man's Jason Kidd? KC is/will be a power guard/forward with a suspect jumper. If he can show the ability to guard quick NBA guards-- so he could play some PG he would consider for the lottery. The NBA loves big point guards.
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Cougarbib
BYU now has 23 wins. I do not expect BYU to win tonight. They could. They might. Data indicates that Gonzaga is better on a neutral court and the Zags got their wake-up call vs Santa Clara on Friday. They did not need to wear themselves out last night vs Saint Mary's and finished nearly 3 hours before BYU finished. Gonzaga will be fresher. Slightly better, too.



I hope BYU proves me wrong. Hopefully, vocal fans will not crucify any imperfect players or coaches.



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scott715
Agree about being fresh. They were able to rest starters and we had to go to overtime. Hope for the best tonight.
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Gunk
If this was the third day in a row that our guys have been playing than fatigue would concern me. They are young and we'll conditioned.



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stuckinbig10country
People keep comparing last nights game to the UNM game Jimmer's last year. The difference was, due to being down a player, that team played 6 guys total. BYU went 10 deep last night. They'll be fresher than we would think.
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craigoscarson
craigoscarson wrote:
Stanford has only lost to BYU. Beat Houston and gave them their first loss tonight.



Iowa State remains undefeated. We nearly beat them. This is our only loss.



Witchita State will be interesting. They are ranked right there with Gonzaga. Nice measuring stick and preparation opportunity. I am not ready to predict a win vs a legit Top 15 opponent. But I maintain a slim hope. But - sheesh - if we lose to a ranked team on essentially a home game for them - can we try to contain our whining?



We had 5 players in double figures again. Haws and Carlino both over 20. We have more weapons than we have had for a few years.



Anybody else willing to sign up for the Church of the 25+ Win Dance Season?


We're not going to make it to 25 regular season wins. We're a good team, but we're missing some pieces and we're relying on a ton of youth. Fortunately, our RPI is really good so our dance ticket is still possible.


got it right, though it doesn't make my decimated bracket look any better!
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craigoscarson
craigoscarson wrote:
craigoscarson wrote:
Stanford has only lost to BYU. Beat Houston and gave them their first loss tonight.



Iowa State remains undefeated. We nearly beat them. This is our only loss.



Witchita State will be interesting. They are ranked right there with Gonzaga. Nice measuring stick and preparation opportunity. I am not ready to predict a win vs a legit Top 15 opponent. But I maintain a slim hope. But - sheesh - if we lose to a ranked team on essentially a home game for them - can we try to contain our whining?



We had 5 players in double figures again. Haws and Carlino both over 20. We have more weapons than we have had for a few years.



Anybody else willing to sign up for the Church of the 25+ Win Dance Season?


We're not going to make it to 25 regular season wins. We're a good team, but we're missing some pieces and we're relying on a ton of youth. Fortunately, our RPI is really good so our dance ticket is still possible.


Church Doctrine specifically includes WCC Tournament games in the 25 wins. Are you still out or does that clarification reel you in?



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I think I'm still out, but by a razor thin margin.
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Cougarbib
I waxed a little optimistic on the wins but was spot on about getting into the tournament but not advancing. We were 2 points away from 25 wins. Oregon. Portland.



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