Impact of SD Loss

IMO, the impact of the San Diego loss is that the remainder of the regular season is now irrelevant to BYU's chances of making the NCAA tournament. I do not believe BYU can make the NCAAs based upon their regular season resume.



I think the only way they can make the Tourney is to win the WCC tournament in March. Coach Rose has never won a conference tournament. 2015 would be a great time to start.

BYU is currently 15-7 and 5-4 in league play. If they can win 25 games they will be a lock for the NCAA tourney. To get to 25, they must beat the following teams at home:



1. USF

2. Santa Clara

3. St. Marys

4. Pacific

5. San Diego



They must win at least three on the road:



1. Pepperdine

2. LMU

3. Gonzaga (likely loss)

4. Portland



And they must win two games in the WCC tourney (very unlikely that they beat the Zags).



Tyler Haws stated they will make the necessary changes to win. With Austin likely out for season, this means double figure games must occur for Haws, Collinsworth, Winder, Fisher and Halford. For me, the X-factor is Fisher who seems to disappear during big - must win games. When he is off, generally, the team loses. Unless Haws and KC start scoring more, or we get improved play from some of the subs (Nixon, Kafusi, Toolson, Worthington, or perhaps Bartley's defense) this team is heading to the NIT.

What kills me about this year's team, which coincidentally happens to be a primary cause for my need of therapy and counseling, is this year's lack of defense. When you are the top scoring team in the country by average, you would think that that an average or even below average defense would be enough to be undefeated or close to it. Yes, I know we have had a few poor scoring games for this year's BYU standard, but that does not change the point that the defense is unfortunately significantly inadequate. Assuming Austin does not return (and I hope somehow he can, but that sounds unlikely given the latest reports), we definitely need several someones to step up on defense. That, or half of Gonzaga's and Saint Mary's players would need to retire, but my hunch is that's not happening.

McY wrote:
What kills me about this year's team, which coincidentally happens to be a primary cause for my need of therapy and counseling, is this year's lack of defense. When you are the top scoring team in the country by average, you would think that that an average or even below average defense would be enough to be undefeated or close to it. Yes, I know we have had a few poor scoring games for this year's BYU standard, but that does not change the point that the defense is unfortunately significantly inadequate. Assuming Austin does not return (and I hope somehow he can, but that sounds unlikely given the latest reports), we definitely need several someones to step up on defense. That, or half of Gonzaga's and Saint Mary's players would need to retire, but my hunch is that's not happening.

If you are looking for a statistic to back that up, BYU is tied for the 18th WORST scoring defense in the country, or tied with 2 other teams for the #326 scoring defense in the land out of 345 DI schools.



Lest you think that's merely a function of their high speed of play and number of possessions, BYU is also a below average #212 in field goal % defense, and #172 in 3 pt % defense.



BYU is not very good at anything on the defensive end, and the number of possessions they give to the other team each game just exacerbates those flaws. The nail in the coffin is BYU's turnover rate--they're turning it over 13 times a game. If you're not playing defense at a high level, the last thing you can afford to do is give the other team free possessions. If there was a statistic for dumb/lazy turnovers, this team might well be the worst in the country. If BYU could clean up 3 turnovers a game, that would be worth four extra wins this season.

byucougar1 wrote:
BYU is currently 15-7 and 5-4 in league play. If they can win 25 games they will be a lock for the NCAA tourney.

NIT teams with 25+ wins in 2014:



Georgia State

Louisiana Tech



La. Tech only had one bad loss, but no resume wins and a loss in the CUSA finals put them in the NIT. Georgia Tech had a rough start in 2013 waiting for guys to come back from injury, but finished the season on a 22-2 run to finish 25-8--still wasn't good enough.



I think BYU might have used it's get-out-of-NIT-free card last season, and 25 wins is no guarantee of anything.

As of 1/26/15 BYU has a Pomeroy rating of 39 which is greater than Indiana, Miami, South Carolina, St. Mary's...The prior teams that you mentioned had Pomeroy ratings much higher than BYU despite 25 wins. Stanford and UMass wins and close loses to other teams are what is keeping BYU relevant. Not excusing them for losing to Pepperdine and SD but they are not getting blown out and do lead nation in scoring average. They are exciting to watch and have a good fan base. If they are close, committee will consider them based upon history.



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snoscythe wrote:
If there was a statistic for dumb/lazy turnovers, this team might well be the worst in the country. If BYU could clean up 3 turnovers a game, that would be worth four extra wins this season.

This seems to be the theme of the big 2 sports this year. Self imposed disadvantages.

snoscythe wrote:

What kills me about this year's team, which coincidentally happens to be a primary cause for my need of therapy and counseling, is this year's lack of defense. When you are the top scoring team in the country by average, you would think that that an average or even below average defense would be enough to be undefeated or close to it. Yes, I know we have had a few poor scoring games for this year's BYU standard, but that does not change the point that the defense is unfortunately significantly inadequate. Assuming Austin does not return (and I hope somehow he can, but that sounds unlikely given the latest reports), we definitely need several someones to step up on defense. That, or half of Gonzaga's and Saint Mary's players would need to retire, but my hunch is that's not happening.

If you are looking for a statistic to back that up, BYU is tied for the 18th WORST scoring defense in the country, or tied with 2 other teams for the #326 scoring defense in the land out of 345 DI schools.



Lest you think that's merely a function of their high speed of play and number of possessions, BYU is also a below average #212 in field goal % defense, and #172 in 3 pt % defense.



BYU is not very good at anything on the defensive end, and the number of possessions they give to the other team each game just exacerbates those flaws. The nail in the coffin is BYU's turnover rate--they're turning it over 13 times a game. If you're not playing defense at a high level, the last thing you can afford to do is give the other team free possessions. If there was a statistic for dumb/lazy turnovers, this team might well be the worst in the country. If BYU could clean up 3 turnovers a game, that would be worth four extra wins this season.

The defense is bad. Which is so odd to me because transition basketball roots itself in defense, at least successful transition basketball team. We seem to have the transition part down.



The other week, there was a quote from Rose talking about how he'd rather shoot early in the shot clock so as to diminish the risk of losing the ball, which explains things a lot if you think about it.



As awesome as KC and our guards are, we have trouble securing the ball. 13 turnovers a game is a lot. Yes, KC averages 5.8 assists a game, but he's coughing up the ball 3 times a game. Halford isn't the best with ball security either. Fischer gets stripped almost every game. Haws looses it with regularity. I'm not being down on the guys, just pointing out the ball security issues and hence Rose's emphasis on shooting as early as possible in the shot clock. It's his philosophy.



Again, not a bad philosophy if you have the shooters and more importantly the defense. We have the shooters...

It's not so much transition offense as, well, to put it candidly and slightly sarcastically, "Go Faster, Go Harder; and one factor folks haven't included in their Analyses of the losses, is that this fast paced O means more possession, more fatigue, and more fatigue as the season gets longer. I think this has happened to Haws the past three seasons. But that's kid of my pet perception. Could be wrong. Glad BYU had this Tuesday off.

When your best point guard is coming off the bench in a reserve role (and no, I'm not talking about Winder, he is a 2 guard), you are going to have ball security problems. And I've said as much all season. BYU doesn't have a point guard, and should give a serious look to starting Halford in the 4 guard lineup, especially with Fischers down play (He could rotate in as a three headed monster with WInder, he and Halford splitting minutes at the one and two positions). KC can have the ball all he wants on the wings in the 3 point stance, but the days of him bringing the ball down the court should be gone. Get the ball to him on the wing and watch the defense worry about where he is all of the time. WHen he has the ball it's much easier to worry about him. Have him post and make back cuts and come off screens, the same way Haws does. He can't shoot from mid-range on, but he can get the ball in space, take a dribble and draw attention and dish or get to the line.

BlueIsBetter wrote:
When your best point guard is coming off the bench in a reserve role (and no, I'm not talking about Winder, he is a 2 guard), you are going to have ball security problems. And I've said as much all season. BYU doesn't have a point guard, and should give a serious look to starting Halford in the 4 guard lineup, especially with Fischers down play (He could rotate in as a three headed monster with WInder, he and Halford splitting minutes at the one and two positions). KC can have the ball all he wants on the wings in the 3 point stance, but the days of him bringing the ball down the court should be gone. Get the ball to him on the wing and watch the defense worry about where he is all of the time. WHen he has the ball it's much easier to worry about him. Have him post and make back cuts and come off screens, the same way Haws does. He can't shoot from mid-range on, but he can get the ball in space, take a dribble and draw attention and dish or get to the line.

Are you seriously implying that Halford is a point guard? What is the first, most important part of being a point guard? Ball-handling/ball security. Halford is terrible at that.



I think we are going to need to matchup specific for bring the ball up the court. When KC is playing the 4 he will have an advantage but if opponent's 4 is guarding Winder or Fischer they should bring the ball up.

BlueIsBetter wrote:
When your best point guard is coming off the bench in a reserve role (and no, I'm not talking about Winder, he is a 2 guard), you are going to have ball security problems. And I've said as much all season. BYU doesn't have a point guard, and should give a serious look to starting Halford in the 4 guard lineup, especially with Fischers down play (He could rotate in as a three headed monster with WInder, he and Halford splitting minutes at the one and two positions). KC can have the ball all he wants on the wings in the 3 point stance, but the days of him bringing the ball down the court should be gone. Get the ball to him on the wing and watch the defense worry about where he is all of the time. WHen he has the ball it's much easier to worry about him. Have him post and make back cuts and come off screens, the same way Haws does. He can't shoot from mid-range on, but he can get the ball in space, take a dribble and draw attention and dish or get to the line.

I agree we do not have a PG. I agree KC is playing out of position.



I wholeheartedly disagree that Halford should start. He's a turnover machine, gets pushed around defense, has less length, and can't get to the rim. I'd take Winder bringing up the ball over Halford any day. In fact, I'd prefer Winder at PG over KC.



Winder ran point for the first half of the season his freshman year and did it against some solid opponents. He was then Carlino's backup.

I think KC is our best PG. I have no problem with him bringing it up the floor. I honestly prefer him to Carlino because KC looks to get others involved and Carlino has only ever cared about getting his own.

hawkwing wrote:
I honestly prefer him to Carlino because KC looks to get others involved and Carlino has only ever cared about getting his own.

I think this may be a little harsh, although Carlino was a shoot-first kind of player (not usually what you want at the point).

Schmoe wrote:

I honestly prefer him to Carlino because KC looks to get others involved and Carlino has only ever cared about getting his own.

I think this may be a little harsh, although Carlino was a shoot-first kind of player (not usually what you want at the point).

I think there is a lot of projecting that goes on with the criticisms of Carlino. He gave no indication that he wasn't anything less than a team player while at BYU. He came off the bench when "demoted" and took it like a champ.



And unless KC keeps up his current assist average, Carlino currently holds the single season record for highest assist average. A guy "looking to get his own" doesn't dole out nearly 5 assists a game. Had we had more shooters last year other than Haws, Carlino would have averaged 6+ assists a game.



Jimmer on the other hand hardly passed the ball...

Gunk wrote:

hawkwing wrote:
I honestly prefer him to Carlino because KC looks to get others involved and Carlino has only ever cared about getting his own.

I think this may be a little harsh, although Carlino was a shoot-first kind of player (not usually what you want at the point).

I think there is a lot of projecting that goes on with the criticisms of Carlino. He gave no indication that he wasn't anything less than a team player while at BYU. He came off the bench when "demoted" and took it like a champ.



And unless KC keeps up his current assist average, Carlino currently holds the single season record for highest assist average. A guy "looking to get his own" doesn't dole out nearly 5 assists a game. Had we had more shooters last year other than Haws, Carlino would have averaged 6+ assists a game.



Jimmer on the other hand hardly passed the ball...

Jimmer took much smarter shots.

Schmoe wrote:

I honestly prefer him to Carlino because KC looks to get others involved and Carlino has only ever cared about getting his own.

I think this may be a little harsh, although Carlino was a shoot-first kind of player (not usually what you want at the point).

He is BYU's all time leader in assists per game! ALL TIME LEADER!!! And that was coming off the bench for last year.



SHEESH!!! Get it together, Hawk.



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Assists per game



2014-15 Season:

KC: 5.8

Carlino: 3.3



2013-14 Season:

KC: 4.6

Carlino: 4.3



2012-13 Season:

KC: NA

Carlino: 4.8



2011-12 Season:

KC: NA

Carlino: 4.6



Looks to me as if KC may be the better assist guy, if nothing else, it's a tie. KC has gotten better, Carlino has gotten worse. KC, if he keeps this pace up will average nearly 6 assists per game for the whole season, significantly better than any year Carlino has had.

hawkwing wrote:
Assists per game



2014-15 Season:

KC: 5.8

Carlino: 3.3



2013-14 Season:

KC: 4.6

Carlino: 4.3



2012-13 Season:

KC: NA

Carlino: 4.8



2011-12 Season:

KC: NA

Carlino: 4.6



Looks to me as if KC may be the better assist guy, if nothing else, it's a tie. KC has gotten better, Carlino has gotten worse. KC, if he keeps this pace up will average nearly 6 assists per game for the whole season, significantly better than any year Carlino has had.

I hope that KC does keep it up! You understand you are comparing apples to oranges with respect to this year's numbers, Carlino is on a team where not everyone shoots (imagine that, some guys actually recruited to rebound and block and thats it... Zoinks!!!). Marquette doesn't play the same kind of basketball. Carlino is asked to score more (his scoring avg is up considerably) and the actual quality of teams isn't even CLOSE to being the same thing. Carlino is going up against guys that are NBA bound on a weekly basis in the WCC. The WCC? Not so much...



I wish we had both... Could you imagine KColl cutting to the hoop with someone that actually keeps their head up when they dribble? It would have been great...



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hawkwing wrote:
Assists per game



2014-15 Season:

KC: 5.8

Carlino: 3.3



2013-14 Season:

KC: 4.6

Carlino: 4.3



2012-13 Season:

KC: NA

Carlino: 4.8



2011-12 Season:

KC: NA

Carlino: 4.6



Looks to me as if KC may be the better assist guy, if nothing else, it's a tie. KC has gotten better, Carlino has gotten worse. KC, if he keeps this pace up will average nearly 6 assists per game for the whole season, significantly better than any year Carlino has had.

Imagine how many more assists that Collinsworth would have had last year if Carlino would have made more of his shots... ;)