Lawboy wrote:
I will support whoever Bronco picks to start. Having said that, I have some serious reservations about starting Jake as a true freshman. It just doesn't turn out very well for some guys when that happens.
In the strictest sense, Jake is not a true freshman. He came in January, played spring ball and learned the offense, and had all summer to work with the guys. Not like he is setting foot on campus the first time when fall camp starts. So in that sense, he really is like a RS freshman. But I do understand the reservations.
I thought I would look at how some true freshman have fared recently, for comparison sake. Not comparing Jake to anyone them, just anecdotal. But interesting:
Matt Barkekey (USC)2009 9-4 2,735 yards 59.9% Comp 131.32 RATING
Jacory Harris (Miami) 2008 7-6 1,195 yards 60.8% Comp 125.77 RATING
Jimmy Clausen (Notre Dame)2007 3-9 1,254 yards 56.3% Comp 103.85 RATING
Terrel Pryor (tOSU) 2008 10-3 1,311 yards 60.6% COMP 146.50 RATING
And here is an Elite 11 QB rundown, just for fun. Goes back to 2008.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/preps/football/2008-07-29-elite11-chart_N.htm
And look how Elite 11 QBs have fared as RS freshmen, or as true sophomores after limited reserve play as true freshmen:
Andrew Luck (Stan 2008) 2009 8-5 2,575 yards 56.3% 143.47 RATING
Blaine Gabbert (Mizz 2008) 2009 8-5 3,593 yards 58.9% 140.45 RATING
Landry Jones (OU 2008) 2009 8-5 3,198 yards 58.1% 130.83 RATING
Ryan Mallet (Ark 2007--sat out year for xfer) 2009 8-5 3,627 yards 55.8% 152.52 RATING
The guys a year into the program grossly outperform the true freshmen, and with a lot less talent surrounding them. Why did those teams start true-freshmen? Look at their numbers. Only one of them passed for more than 2,000 yards--these were teams that could rely on the running game to win games and didn't need a lot of production out of the passing game. After Unga's departure, BYU doesn't have that luxury. In contrast, none of the RS freshmen had less than 2,500 yards, and 3 had more than 3000, 2 with more than 3,500.
If you are going to have a guy on the field four years, make all four of them count. Use the RS year to develop the talent and make for a better 4 years down the road. You need a compelling reason to start a true freshman in lieu of a redshirt year in my book. People are afraid that if Heaps doesn't start this season he will have to wait until Nelson graduates, but that simply isn't true--Bronco put the incumbent Berry on the bench in favor of Beck, so he's shown the willingness let the younger guy take the reins when he's ready.