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Sorry, but I'm Not Confident in Nelson

by Mars · 8/10/2010

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YNot
33311710 wrote:
I am going into the season expecting to finish 11-2, with losses @ TCU and @ FSU.


That's funny, because I'm going into this season like I do every other - expecting to go 13-0 and win the (m)NC! Someone needs to have their goggles inspected it seems... :crazy: :crazy:


I know I'm a BYU homer 8) ...but why does it seem like just about everyone on this board is "expecting" to lose to TCU and Florida State?..where's the excitement for our 2010 Cougars? Were you "expecting" to lose to Oklahoma last year as well?



I think BYU has one of the tougher schedules in the nation this year...but I also get excited about the possibilities of 2010 being a dream season. Don't get me wrong, I am fully aware of how tough games against UW and @ Air Force, @ Florida State, @ TCU, and @ Utah will be. I also think Nevada will not be a push over and that San Diego State will be much improved, especially on offense. But that's what makes football season so exciting! I would much rather have a tough schedule than a WAC schedule and a home game against an FCS opponent.



I prefer to start with a script that includes heroic plays and thrilling games (even if the script means a true freshman QB or running back scoring the winning touchdown)...



We have a lot of youth and a lot of question marks...but we also have a TON of talent. There will likely be a couple of hiccups along the way, but why can't we reasonably believe and root for a couple of calls and for the the ball to bounce our way to a fantastic season...



On the Heaps/Nelson issue...I honestly hope that Bronco holds off on naming a starter. It would be great to go into the UW opener with no idea who will take the first snap...then, I hope we get to see Heaps take the majority, but that Riley also plays a critical role at certain points to change the pace, capitalize on holes in the defense, etc....much like changing paces with and utilizing the strengths of Di Luigi, Kariya, and Quezada....
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Brayden Green
frdbtr wrote:
When you say "Nelson doesn't have what it takes to run our offense" what you are really saying is that the coaches at BYU have no idea what they are doing. If Nelson really didn't have what it takes to run BYU's offense, he would currently not be in the race to start. If Nelson wins the starting job, then the coaches (who have won more games over the last 4 years then all but a couple other college football teams) will have deemed him capable of running our offense and I will fully support their decision. If Heaps wins the job, same thing.


How does that even translate to you? So are you saying that IF Nelson starts, he is the better quarterback? I assure you that IF Nelson starts (btw, he'll be lucky to make it out of this week as a projected starter), and that's a HUGE IF, it has nothing to do with him being a better quarterback. Or the right quarterback. Nelson is nothing but a stopgap, be it one year, or one game. He is not a BYU qb. I'm not sure if you are actually watching Riley play, and watching Heaps play, but it isn't even close who is the better qb. You remember that if they start Heaps over Nelson, they are starting a true freshman at qb, and that is a big no no in the NCAA. This is their careers, so I don't begrudge them making sure they have made the right decision. At the same time, if they go with Nelson there is a big hole and risk there, too. The cougars didn't even offer Riley out of high school, and the only reason they accept the transfer and schollie up is because they could see past last year to this, where we would have a big hole. Thank goodness Jake decides to come here, otherwise we wouldn't have him as an option. We would all be sitting around arguing about how many games we are going to lose this year. Riley went into the season last year slated as the 3rd string qb for a reason. All the sudden I am supposed to believe that he is a much better qb for having, yet again, another year in the system. Don't turn this into the "trump card" of questioning the all powerful coaches decision. Let's let them make that decision first. But they aren't going to, because they see a lot more than you or I do, and what i and many others have seen is already enough. The fact that Jake is still a big player this late into the game, under Bronco Mendenhall, who is as strict as they come at not playing guys til their ready, shows you what we are dealing with.
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Brayden Green
YNot wrote:
I know I'm a BYU homer 8) ...but why does it seem like just about everyone on this board is "expecting" to lose to TCU and Florida State?..where's the excitement for our 2010 Cougars? Were you "expecting" to lose to Oklahoma last year as well?


Nope, I am on record and very verbal about us having a chance at OU. And we did. But I would be more surprised if we beat TCU this year, than OU last year. 38-7, and 32-7 come to mind. Florida State is winnable, if we play them right.
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frdbtr
BlueIsBetter wrote:
How does that even translate to you? So are you saying that IF Nelson starts, he is the better quarterback? I assure you that IF Nelson starts (btw, he'll be lucky to make it out of this week as a projected starter), and that's a HUGE IF, it has nothing to do with him being a better quarterback. Or the right quarterback. Nelson is nothing but a stopgap, be it one year, or one game. He is not a BYU qb. I'm not sure if you are actually watching Riley play, and watching Heaps play, but it isn't even close who is the better qb. You remember that if they start Heaps over Nelson, they are starting a true freshman at qb, and that is a big no no in the NCAA. This is their careers, so I don't begrudge them making sure they have made the right decision. At the same time, if they go with Nelson there is a big hole and risk there, too. The cougars didn't even offer Riley out of high school, and the only reason they accept the transfer and schollie up is because they could see past last year to this, where we would have a big hole. Thank goodness Jake decides to come here, otherwise we wouldn't have him as an option. We would all be sitting around arguing about how many games we are going to lose this year. Riley went into the season last year slated as the 3rd string qb for a reason. All the sudden I am supposed to believe that he is a much better qb for having, yet again, another year in the system. Don't turn this into the "trump card" of questioning the all powerful coaches decision. Let's let them make that decision first. But they aren't going to, because they see a lot more than you or I do, and what i and many others have seen is already enough. The fact that Jake is still a big player this late into the game, under Bronco Mendenhall, who is as strict as they come at not playing guys til their ready, shows you what we are dealing with.


What I am saying is if Nelson isn't capable of running BYU's offense, he would not even be in the mix. Lark, Munns and Heaps would be getting all the reps. The fact that he is in the mix is testament to his ability to run BYU's offense. If he wins the job, we will see over time if he is a "stopgap" or if he is a good QB. I haven't been to any practices (I have job so it makes it difficult to do that) so I can't say first hand who is "clearly better", but I do trust the coaches who have won 40+ games over the last 4 years to make a decision that will be the best one. You keep saying that this is "thier jobs", well if they go with Nelson then they obviously believe that he is going to help them keep their jobs.
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YNot
BlueIsBetter wrote:
I know I'm a BYU homer 8) ...but why does it seem like just about everyone on this board is "expecting" to lose to TCU and Florida State?..where's the excitement for our 2010 Cougars? Were you "expecting" to lose to Oklahoma last year as well?


Nope, I am on record and very verbal about us having a chance at OU. And we did. But I would be more surprised if we beat TCU this year, than OU last year. 38-7, and 32-7 come to mind. Florida State is winnable, if we play them right.


Hands down, TCU should be our more difficult game this year. They are returning nine starters on offense, including their senior quarterback, and some big time play makers.



However, I read that TCU lost 6 all-MWC players, including Jerry Hughes. The great news for BYU is that we play TCU the 7th game of the year. I think our talented young guys should be a battle-tested, cohesive unit by then and ready to play.



Perhaps at best BYU would be able to sneak out a close victory. So, that's the angle I take.
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PG Coug
Like Christmas morning, we'll have to wait to open this seasons starter at QB. Waiting can be a chore at times. From the reports coming out of spring ball, Heaps had the statistical passing advantage, while Nelson moved the team with his feet. To suggest a no-confidence vote in Nelson at this juncture, seems premature.



Nelson's H.S. stats speak volumes about his ability to toss the ball, and perform consistently.



"Riley accounted for 84 touchdowns and more than 4,000 yards passing as a senior at Logan HS ... Parade All-American and Deseret News Mr. Football for the state of Utah in 2005 ... holds nine state records including career total touchdowns (130), career passing touchdowns (79), season completions (277), season passing yards (4,041), season passing touchdowns (53), season total touchdowns (84), season total yards (5,815), single game completions (38) and single game touchdown passes (seven)." see: http://www.byucougars.com/Profile.jsp?ID=7999" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



If you absorbed those stats carefully, they are mind-boggling. While at Logan, they won the 3A State Championship. You may say, 3A is not D1, But this little teams from Logan also knocked off Skyline, the team that won the 5A title. All Nelson did in HS was win. He knows how to win.



At USU, Riley was surrounded by futility, and went 1-6 as the starter. Those stats can be viewed at: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/gamelog?playerId=189673" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



At BYU in 2009, Nelson was 7-10 for 99 yards (70%) for an average of 9.90 yards, 1 TD, and no Interceptions...thats a rating of 186.16. He had 21 rushing attempts, for 122 yards, for a 5.8 yards per carry, against 1 sack. A person can interpret those numbers anyway they want, but there they are.



Riley strikes me as "Doman-like" in his abilities. He is a duel threat to run and pass. Though I'm excited to see who the coaches name as the starter, I'm confident they will select the QB that gives the Cougars the best chance to win games, be that Heaps or Nelson. The presents are under the tree, and the wait continues.
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Lawboy
The difference between Doman and Riley is that Doman passed the ball 3x more than he ran, and Nelson ran 2x more than he passed. Doman passed the ball 408 times his senior year and ran it 141 times. So he figured out how to play in the pocket well enough to perform the position. Nelson has yet to shpw that poise and ability in the pocket and continues to show a propensity for pulling it down and running. His 2009 stats back it up. Has to improve that in camp because that balance is not BYU football, and is what causes receivers to stop running great routes.
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pjmuli
Lawboy wrote:
The difference between Doman and Riley is that Doman passed the ball 3x more than he ran, and Nelson ran 2x more than he passed. Doman passed the ball 408 times his senior year and ran it 141 times. So he figured out how to play in the pocket well enough to perform the position. Nelson has yet to shpw that poise and ability in the pocket and continues to show a propensity for pulling it down and running. His 2009 stats back it up. Has to improve that in camp because that balance is not BYU football, and is what causes receivers to stop running great routes.


Another big difference between the two is that one had a Doak Walker winner and that really loosened up the passing game.



I think Doman and Nelson are similar in that they are winners. Please resist the temptation to review Riley's record as a FRESHMAN starting quarterback, at UTAH STATE, being coached by COACH GUY. Three strikes and OUT.
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redneckjedi
Lawboy wrote:
The difference between Doman and Riley is that Doman passed the ball 3x more than he ran, and Nelson ran 2x more than he passed. Doman passed the ball 408 times his senior year and ran it 141 times. So he figured out how to play in the pocket well enough to perform the position. Nelson has yet to shpw that poise and ability in the pocket and continues to show a propensity for pulling it down and running. His 2009 stats back it up. Has to improve that in camp because that balance is not BYU football, and is what causes receivers to stop running great routes.


Nelson also has yet to be in the game at a time where throwing the ball is a good idea. When you're running out the clock, you run the ball. You can't compare run-to-pass ratios between a starter and a backup that played mop-up or concession minutes only. Apples and oranges.
J
jonnylingo
BlueIsBetter wrote:
I know I'm a BYU homer 8) ...but why does it seem like just about everyone on this board is "expecting" to lose to TCU and Florida State?..where's the excitement for our 2010 Cougars? Were you "expecting" to lose to Oklahoma last year as well?


Nope, I am on record and very verbal about us having a chance at OU. And we did. But I would be more surprised if we beat TCU this year, than OU last year. 38-7, and 32-7 come to mind. Florida State is winnable, if we play them right.


I am on record and have been for months that we will beat tcu this year. i expect a loss at fsu and i am hopeful that we can beat uw but very nervous about that game. we always have a shot at utah.
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snoscythe
redneckjedi wrote:
The difference between Doman and Riley is that Doman passed the ball 3x more than he ran, and Nelson ran 2x more than he passed. Doman passed the ball 408 times his senior year and ran it 141 times. So he figured out how to play in the pocket well enough to perform the position. Nelson has yet to shpw that poise and ability in the pocket and continues to show a propensity for pulling it down and running. His 2009 stats back it up. Has to improve that in camp because that balance is not BYU football, and is what causes receivers to stop running great routes.


Nelson also has yet to be in the game at a time where throwing the ball is a good idea. When you're running out the clock, you run the ball. You can't compare run-to-pass ratios between a starter and a backup that played mop-up or concession minutes only. Apples and oranges.


To further your point--at USU, where he was playing as a starter, he had 139 pass attempts to 79 runs.
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byufan4ever
I know Jake Heaps is like the best recruit that we've pulled in ever, but some people here have a serious man crush on him. But maybe I would too if I had seen him in person...maybe that will change after going to one of the open practices...



Where are the "Jakes Heaps: the future is now?" t-shirts?? 90% of the posters here would buy that.



I'm not for one of the other, but I do believe that both are talented.
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blue42
Lawboy wrote:
The difference between Doman and Riley is that Doman passed the ball 3x more than he ran, and Nelson ran 2x more than he passed. Doman passed the ball 408 times his senior year and ran it 141 times. So he figured out how to play in the pocket well enough to perform the position. Nelson has yet to shpw that poise and ability in the pocket and continues to show a propensity for pulling it down and running. His 2009 stats back it up. Has to improve that in camp because that balance is not BYU football, and is what causes receivers to stop running great routes.


I think one thing you are missing here is that BYU actually changed it offense for Doman and his strengths. You came with the stats to back up what you are saying but remember the biggest difference then was the coaches biggest running attack was with Doman running the option with Staley. I don't want to throw out any made up percentages but I do know that Doman was involved in a lot more running plays than the 141 runs officially credited to him. I would guess BYU probably ran the option close to 150 - 200 times that year, (again no proof of that just a guess) and if it is even close to that number than his pass to run ratio would be closer to 1:1, but since Doman pitched the ball it wasn't an official run play for him. One of the things I remember of Doman was many times he actually pitched the ball to Staley after they had crossed the line of scrimmage which made the play even more affective.
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Italics
byufan4ever wrote:
I know Jake Heaps is like the best recruit that we've pulled in ever, but some people here have a serious man crush on him. But maybe I would too if I had seen him in person...maybe that will change after going to one of the open practices...



Where are the "Jakes Heaps: the future is now?" t-shirts?? 90% of the posters here would buy that.



I'm not for one of the other, but I do believe that both are talented.


I'll tell you what I WOULD buy... a t-shirt with Heaps in a BYU uniform about to throw the ball, and then on the back, "There Can Only Be One."
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Brayden Green
blue42 wrote:
The difference between Doman and Riley is that Doman passed the ball 3x more than he ran, and Nelson ran 2x more than he passed. Doman passed the ball 408 times his senior year and ran it 141 times. So he figured out how to play in the pocket well enough to perform the position. Nelson has yet to shpw that poise and ability in the pocket and continues to show a propensity for pulling it down and running. His 2009 stats back it up. Has to improve that in camp because that balance is not BYU football, and is what causes receivers to stop running great routes.


I think one thing you are missing here is that BYU actually changed it offense for Doman and his strengths. You came with the stats to back up what you are saying but remember the biggest difference then was the coaches biggest running attack was with Doman running the option with Staley. I don't want to throw out any made up percentages but I do know that Doman was involved in a lot more running plays than the 141 runs officially credited to him. I would guess BYU probably ran the option close to 150 - 200 times that year, (again no proof of that just a guess) and if it is even close to that number than his pass to run ratio would be closer to 1:1, but since Doman pitched the ball it wasn't an official run play for him. One of the things I remember of Doman was many times he actually pitched the ball to Staley after they had crossed the line of scrimmage which made the play even more affective.


Right, and the defense was absolutely torrid that year... That is one thing that I have been advocating against, spending so much time on offensive schemes, that we have to re-learn everything and not get everything figured out on the defensive side of the ball.
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Mars
Lawboy wrote:
Ohio State never loses to crap Big 10 teams, and we never lose to crap MWC teams. It is the culture.

Don't they lose one every year? Illinois?



P.S. TCU is better than FSU, so I still think that win is more unlikely. I'm curious how the program's anger about the Florida State result at home last season turns out on the field this year.
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blue42
BlueIsBetter wrote:

Right, and the defense was absolutely torrid that year... That is one thing that I have been advocating against, spending so much time on offensive schemes, that we have to re-learn everything and not get everything figured out on the defensive side of the ball.


You got that right, who can forget the 72 Hawaii hung on BYU that year :sulk: and were giving up 30 points a game! OUCH!
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Cougs_Rule
Italics wrote:
I know Jake Heaps is like the best recruit that we've pulled in ever, but some people here have a serious man crush on him. But maybe I would too if I had seen him in person...maybe that will change after going to one of the open practices...



Where are the "Jakes Heaps: the future is now?" t-shirts?? 90% of the posters here would buy that.



I'm not for one of the other, but I do believe that both are talented.


I'll tell you what I WOULD buy... a t-shirt with Heaps in a BYU uniform about to throw the ball, and then on the back, "There Can Only Be One."


Oh no you did not just say it......AGAIN!!!!! I give up. :crazy: :)





NEW T-SHIRT IDEAS---------"AND THEN THERE WAS TWO"

................................ONE CAME TO PASS AND ONE CAME TO RUN

................................BUT HE CAME TO PASS...."

.....Oh i Like this one......QB SYNERGY: ONE PLUS ONE IS GREATER THAN TWO.
C
Cougarbib
Realistically, if you study th eman who runs this team, there can only be on eof two reasons that a starter among 4 highly touted QBs has not been named at this juncture.



(1) BYU has a high level of confidence in the ability to get any of 2 or more ready by Sept 4

(2) Lacks confidence in any of the 4 and is hoping one of them steps up.



If the problem is #1, it will all work out. If the problem is #2, we will have a losing season.



I hope the problem is #1 and believe that it is. So isn't it swell that MARS, and others feel the need to declare one of them as not being capable of running the BYU offense and / or a stop gap measure at best. If those sentiments are true, as opposed to immature like I usually find Mars, then neither of them are ready. So, I have to hope, that as usual, Mars is just a bit too full of himself and other undesireable things.



Go Cougs - may the best of these 4 fine athletes win the nod, may they all make the most of the opportunities they are given, and may they support the coaches in the decisions that are made - like the fans should. All 4 of these guys have made sacrifices to be here - a little respect and appreciation?



Maybe Nelson should start a post about what he thinks about Mars - oh Nelson probably doesn't give a hoot about Mars because he is unaware of anything Mars has done that would stand out in any crowd. Anyway, the seasonis soon upon us and Mars authoring 80% of the posts has returned.



Go Cougs
M
Mars
Cougarbib2 wrote:
isn't it swell that MARS, and others feel the need to declare one of them as not being capable of running the BYU offense... If those sentiments are true, as opposed to immature like I usually find Mars, then neither of them are ready. So, I have to hope, that as usual, Mars is just a bit too full of himself and other undesireable things... Maybe Nelson should start a post about what he thinks about Mars - oh Nelson probably doesn't give a hoot about Mars because he is unaware of anything Mars has done that would stand out in any crowd. Anyway, the seasonis soon upon us and Mars authoring 80% of the posts has returned.

You only mentioned me 7 times in that post. I used to expect better from you. You're slipping.



:lol:
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