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BYU Free Throw Shooting Myths

by Cougarbib · 1/26/2014

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Cougarbib
BroncoBot wrote:
Bravo BYULV, Spot on. And that is why all the frustration with KC, he gets to the FT line a TON as bib has mentioned. When you get to the line that much, and miss as much as he does, it's called a liability.


Tonight KC kept BYU in it early including some key free throws. Home Sweet Home.



BTW



Arizona was 16-16 fwiw in their loss to CAL.



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BroncoBot
Cougarbib wrote:
Several have posted that Dave Rose has failed to get the right people handling the ball at crunch time and that if KC were benched at those times - problem solved. Not really. Haws and Halford are money. MC is average - but worse when tired or having an off night confidence wise. Maybe Winder - though very unproven. There is no better 5th choice than KC - unfortunately.



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I'm confident you could take someone from the end of BYU's bench and add them at the end of the game and BYU could have won some of those games earlier.



KC did shoot better tonight.
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BroncoBot
Cougarbib wrote:
Bravo BYULV, Spot on. And that is why all the frustration with KC, he gets to the FT line a TON as bib has mentioned. When you get to the line that much, and miss as much as he does, it's called a liability.


Tonight KC kept BY in it early including some key free throws. Home Sweet Home.



BTW



Arizona was 16-16 fwiw in their loss to CAL.



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Behold, the difference made FTs make.
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Cougarbib
BroncoBot wrote:
BroncoBot wrote:
Bravo BYULV, Spot on. And that is why all the frustration with KC, he gets to the FT line a TON as bib has mentioned. When you get to the line that much, and miss as much as he does, it's called a liability.


Tonight KC kept BYU in it early including some key free throws. Home Sweet Home.



BTW



Arizona was 16-16 fwiw in their loss to CAL.



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Behold, the difference made FTs make.


yes. As I said, BYU needs to shoot 75%+..



100% did not help AZ, though.



Saint Mary's shot 68.8% FT tonight. The road clearly affects SMC shooting all around. We shot higher FG%, higher 3-point %, and higher FT%. Home Sweet Home.



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Cougarbib
BYULV wrote:
Ok, here's the real myth regarding FT shooting: BYU is not as good at shooting FTs as their 69% would imply. Take Tyler Haws out of the equation and the rest of the team shoots . . . 59%. If 69% was borderline average, 59% is downright pathetic.


Sure they are. They are average. But they do have a huge spread. Haws and Halford money. MC decent. Winder decent.



everyone else is poor.



Average is average. You take Haws out - bam we lose an incredible weapon. That is the plus. He is money. If we get him to the line. Money. BYU is getting him to the line. Money. Halford is money. That is why he is on the floor so much. We need to get him to the line more.



If they all shot 69%, there would be nobody that is money and no strategy to keep the ball in the right hands. There would only be average, mediocre hands. Average does not win big games.



We look just like a 69% FT team. Average. Not good enough to win tough games with free throws.



KC is a liability of sorts. But, once again, look at the flip side - he draws a ton of fouls, usually shooting fouls - gets guys in foul trouble.



math



if he did not get fouled, a typical player makes slightly less than half. If he draws a shooting foul, he makes more than half.



But, on a 1 and 1 - possibly a very slight liability, other than getting opponents in foul trouble. But even there here is the math. If a player makes 60% on the front of a 1 and 1, you average .6 points, but get a 2nd shot. Then you hit 60% of those .6 shots and you get another .36. That is .96 per trip. Just about the odds of getting a field goal especially if you adjust for turnovers. So, 60% free throw shooting is just about break even.



77.5% is what you want. That would win most of our games this season. Unless teams started fouling us a lot less and we missed field goals.



I expect KC to continue to improve FT shooting.



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BYULV
Cougarbib wrote:
Cougarbib wrote:
Bravo BYULV, Spot on. And that is why all the frustration with KC, he gets to the FT line a TON as bib has mentioned. When you get to the line that much, and miss as much as he does, it's called a liability.


Tonight KC kept BY in it early including some key free throws. Home Sweet Home.



BTW



Arizona was 16-16 fwiw in their loss to CAL.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Behold, the difference made FTs make.


Actually, I think it was Cal that shot 16/16. I'd have to check



yes. As I said, BYU needs to shoot 75%+..



100% did not help AZ, though.



Saint Mary's shot 68.8% FT tonight. The road clearly affects SMC shooting all around. We shot higher FG%, higher 3-point %, and higher FT%. Home Sweet Home.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">
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Cougarbib
BroncoBot wrote:
Several have posted that Dave Rose has failed to get the right people handling the ball at crunch time and that if KC were benched at those times - problem solved. Not really. Haws and Halford are money. MC is average - but worse when tired or having an off night confidence wise. Maybe Winder - though very unproven. There is no better 5th choice than KC - unfortunately.



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I'm confident you could take someone from the end of BYU's bench and add them at the end of the game and BYU could have won some of those games earlier.



KC did shoot better tonight.


Who would you take from the end of that bench. Hint: Do not take anyone but Haws, Halford, Carlino, or Winder. KC is next best.



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BYULV
You keep saying our FT shooters are avg and they are not. 59% is bad for any Div 1 BBall player. Team avg of 69% is not avg either, it is the bottom third of teams. More than 200 teams shoot better than we do at the line, I consider that below average. The whole point to even discussing this is that the players and coaches have control over this, there is little other teams can do to stop a FREE throw, that's why they call it free. If they put in the time to be good FT shooters they would be. I guarantee you Haws and Halford are not just naturally gifted FT shooters. I bet they shoot hundreds of free throws each practice. I would be surprised if the rest of the guys put in the same kind of effort.



PS: nice job by Collinsworth last night, 8/10 FT. Hopefully he does more of the same. If he were a good FT shooter, he would be a much more dangerous weapon.
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Cougarbib
BYULV wrote:
BroncoBot wrote:
BroncoBot wrote:
Bravo BYULV, Spot on. And that is why all the frustration with KC, he gets to the FT line a TON as bib has mentioned. When you get to the line that much, and miss as much as he does, it's called a liability.


Tonight KC kept BY in it early including some key free throws. Home Sweet Home.



BTW



Arizona was 16-16 fwiw in their loss to CAL.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Behold, the difference made FTs make.




yes. As I said, BYU needs to shoot 75%+..



100% did not help AZ, though.



Saint Mary's shot 68.8% FT tonight. The road clearly affects SMC shooting all around. We shot higher FG%, higher 3-point %, and higher FT%. Home Sweet Home.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">


Actually, I think it was CAL that shot 16/16. I will have to check.




BYULV - I checked. AZ was 16/16. Cal shot 75% with 6/8. AZ shot poorly from the field and from 3.



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Cougarbib
BYULV wrote:
You keep saying our FT shooters are avg and they are not. 59% is bad for any Div 1 BBall player. Team avg of 69% is not avg either, it is the bottom third of teams. More than 200 teams shoot better than we do at the line, I consider that below average. The whole point to even discussing this is that the players and coaches have control over this, there is little other teams can do to stop a FREE throw, that's why they call it free. If they put in the time to be good FT shooters they would be. I guarantee you Haws and Halford are not just naturally gifted FT shooters. I bet they shoot hundreds of free throws each practice. I would be surprised if the rest of the guys put in the same kind of effort.



PS: nice job by Collinsworth last night, 8/10 FT. Hopefully he does more of the same. If he were a good FT shooter, he would be a much more dangerous weapon.


Actually, I keep saying that most of our free throw shooters are poor. All but Haws, Halford, Winder, and Carlin are poor. Only Haws and Halford are good. I also keep saying that when you adjust for all the games we played away from home, we are pretty average as a team average. You said if we just hit 70% it would win those big games. I said 70% is not good enough to win those games because those 5 extra points do not magically come right when you want them. I said BYU needs to be a great FT shooting team to win games that way. I define that as 77.5%, although an over-all average of 75% would probably gotten a point to show up at the right time to win one or two of those close games. Even that would assume that an opponent does not adjust, foul us less, and just let Bartley and MC fire away and miss.



The point I have been trying to make is that this BYU team has several weaknesses and just fixing any one thing does not suddenly make us championship material. We are not horrible at any one thing. We are average or mediocre at several things. And much of that came from playing too many good teams on the road.



Note the miraculous improvement every time we get back to the Marriott Center.



IIRC, only Iowa State has won in Provo. And just one more stop, or one more put back, or one more turnover, or one more rebound, or one more make, or one more 3, or one more assist, or one more foul, or yes, another couple of FTs would have gotten us to OT or a win in that game.
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BroncoBot
Cougarbib wrote:
Cougarbib wrote:
Bravo BYULV, Spot on. And that is why all the frustration with KC, he gets to the FT line a TON as bib has mentioned. When you get to the line that much, and miss as much as he does, it's called a liability.


Tonight KC kept BYU in it early including some key free throws. Home Sweet Home.



BTW



Arizona was 16-16 fwiw in their loss to CAL.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Behold, the difference made FTs make.


yes. As I said, BYU needs to shoot 75%+..



100% did not help AZ, though.



Saint Mary's shot 68.8% FT tonight. The road clearly affects SMC shooting all around. We shot higher FG%, higher 3-point %, and higher FT%. Home Sweet Home.



[ Post made via Mobile Device ] http://cougarcorner.com/images/mobile.png" alt="" loading="lazy" style="max-width:100%">

Bib, give it up. No one is arguing that FTs are the ONLY difference in a game. WHEN BYU is making 16-16 and losing, you'll have a much better argument.
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Guest
Wow, big myth I'm seeing perpetrated here is that you can discount poor free throw shooting when it's done on the road, and then compare the home free throw shooting numbers with the national average to be only a little below average, but not take out the away free throw numbers for the rest of the nation when comparing that average.



Mainly looks like someone has painted themselves into a corner and can't admit that he was wrong.



If anyone in the leadership council wants to suggest that this thread be locked because it's long past it's usefulness you're welcome to bring it up in the leadership forum.
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Cougarbib
hawkwing wrote:
Wow, big myth I'm seeing perpetrated here is that you can discount poor free throw shooting when it's done on the road, and then compare the home free thing numbers with the national average to be only a little below average, but not take out the away free throw numbers for the rest of the nation when comparing that average.



Mainly looks like someone has painted themselves into a corner and can't admit that he was wrong.



If anyone in the leadership council wants to suggest that this thread be locked because it's long past it's usefulness you're welcome to bring it up in the leadership forum.


You may note in the OP - first post - I acknowledged that there was a 2-3% difference between BYU and the average. I stand by that. And, yes, I think playing on the road has affected our result. I stand by that. Yes I predicted the upcoming home stretch will improve oyr average. I stand by that. You may note that we are at about 73% in our last two games. Yes, I claimed that 70% average FT shooting would not make a difference since we were already at 69%. I stand by that.



Most importantly, I claimed that FT shooting was far from the only problem affecting this team.



I guess I have painted myself into a corner. The corner of truth. If that truth hurts, please lock the thread.



Ironically, I expect that to dip back down a little bit Thursday even at home. It will be a blowout and thus lots of garbage minutes with Austin, Mika, Sharp, Carlino, Bartley, Worthington, and Winder on the floor getting fouled and shooting FTs.



Maybe Halford will stay in. But Haws will find the bench early as will the much improved Collinsworth.



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Cougarbib
Cougarbib wrote:
All season long we have been shocked by poor free throw shooting by BYU. It has seemed like a huge discrepancy vs our oppinents. Actually, it has only been less than a 3 percentage points difference and is more than offset by the fact that BYU gets to the line a lot more than opponents have done.



So - yes it is a factor. Just not as big as it seems.



And there are bigger statistical myths out there to be addressed in separate threads.



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This is The OP.



Truth Spoken.



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Cougarbib
hawkwing wrote:
Wow, big myth I'm seeing perpetrated here is that you can discount poor free throw shooting when it's done on the road, and then compare the home free throw shooting numbers with the national average to be only a little below average, but not take out the away free throw numbers for the rest of the nation when comparing that average.



Mainly looks like someone has painted themselves into a corner and can't admit that he was wrong.



If anyone in the leadership council wants to suggest that this thread be locked because it's long past it's usefulness you're welcome to bring it up in the leadership forum.


Totally agree with your first paragraph. In fact, I have never suggested doing that. However, playing a disproportionate number of road games has definitely skewed our FT shooting %. How much. Tough to measure. Certainly not ZIP.



And for fans that prefer to compare to former BYU teams instead of national averages - which have exactly equal home and away and neutral by definition - you do not have to go back very far to note that BYU used to play more home games than away - not equal or less.



So scheduling has had an impact. I wish I had perfect data. I do not. I have some good data, however.



Did you know



BYU gets fewer shot attempts on the road based on WCC games this year - 30.9 vs 32.2 trips.

Bigger story by far, Tyler Haws gets 10.6 vs 7.0. Best FT shooter by far is not getting trips on the road. That affects team %.

Another key part of the story - the # of shots per game gap is even bigger if the 3 OT game was adjusted to regulation time only.



That is not all

Haws and KC by far take most of our shots this season. Haws is 92.5% Home vs 85.7% on the road. Our most consistent FT shooter has a 6.8% swing. KC goes 72.2% Vs 58.7% - a 13.5% swing.



Mika and Carlino have taken the next most shots this season, although injuries and role changes might bring Austin and Halford close in WCC. Mika goes 76.9% vs 61.5% - a 15.4% swing Carlino bucks the trend. He shoots 7% better on the road - but

Did you know that Carlino got to the line a lot before conference play, but has had three 0-0 games in conference along with a couple of 2-2 games? Carlino is rarely getting to the line anymore. But that is true home and away for him. Just noting that he is 4th in total attempts for the year, but less of a factor in this WCC data set.



BYU shoots 73.3% at home vs 69.2% away.



Take that plus fewer trips on the road, and especially, fewer trips for Haws, and the road has affected our FG% individually and as a team.



Another consideration - impossible to quantify



Shooting and FT shooting are all about confidence. What affect has playing a bunch of really good teams, almost entirely on the road, had on individual and overall team confidence that may have had carry over affect on both home and away games.



In the old days, Jack Gardner at the U and Stan Watts at the Y got teams into deep NCAA play and to NOT Championships back when the NIT meant something. I suspect Major us did it in a similar way.



Play a ton of very winnable games - heavily weighted to home court. Build a ton of swagger going into conference play. Sweep the conference doormats home and away. Drop a game or 2 or 3 to the top conference teams on the road. Go dancing.



BYU is doing the opposite. Basketball and football.



I actually like the interesting opponents. Giving home court away - suicide.



Home vs Away directly impacts W/L. BYU has lost 1 home game. Very close to a win vs a ranked team



BYU has lost more than they have won away from Provo.



See also football.



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Guest
Tell me this, Bib. What is the national average for free-throw shooting at home compared to on the road. Until you can tell me that number, I don't care to hear anything else. We already know your thoughts on scheduling. You have repeated that ad nauseum, so please no more. Just backup your claims that BYU is very close to an average free throw shooting team at home.
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Cougarbib
hawkwing wrote:
Tell me this, Bib. What is the national average for free-throw shooting at home compared to on the road. Until you can tell me that number, I don't care to hear anything else. We already know your thoughts on scheduling. You have repeated that ad nauseum, so please no more. Just backup your claims that BYU is very close to an average free throw shooting team at home.


My data is as imperfect as your data. The average nationally, according to someone else above is about 72%. I was happy to accept that number because I do not know what it is. I do know what BY opponents shoot. Shared that. Already agreed that BY is 2-3 percentage points below that. I gave you plenty of data to show that BYU shoots better at home than away.



Why am I under any more obligation than you to come up with perfect data? What does your data show, Hawk?



You own the place, so I guess you get to choose to proclaim that it makes little difference and so far, you have provided absolutely zero data.



I guess that is a lock. Heaven forbid that we inform your posters with actual data that BYU shoots significantly better at hoe than on the road, Tyler Haws is not getting to the line as much on the road, BYU is playing more on the road, almost every player is shooting better at home.



Heaven help us if word gets out.



That should be a lock on this report.



I imagine the What is it Worth Thread - facts and all - is going to ruffle the same feathers.



Home Court matters.



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Cougarbib
BYU is #198 out of 351 teams listed.

Median is 176.

BYU is 22 spots below median.



Source



http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa....free" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; throws





I will leave it to Hawk to let us all know how many of those 22 spots below absolute middle are due to too many road games.



U is #16. They play mostly at home. They shoot 5% better at home.



Almost every team listed shoots better at home.



Out.



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Guest
Bib, I'm not sure what you think I'm trying to argue here. You seem to be lashing out from a very defensive standpoint here, when all I want to know is if BYU is shooting significantly lower free throw percentage at home when compared to the national average of free throws made at home.



Seeing as you are making the argument that BYU is about average when shooting from home it is up to you to provide the data of what the national home average is. It's always up to the person who is declaring a fact to back it up with data. So back it up.



I have no evidence to share, because I'm not ascerting that BYU shoots better or worse than the national average at home, but I'd love to see if that's true or not.



Either that, or I'm part of some big conspiracy to hide the truth from these other CougarCorner users, for some diabolical gain...
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Guest
Cougarbib wrote:
BYU is #198 out oflisted By median is 176.

BYU is 22 spots below median.



I will leave it to Hawk to let us all know how many of those 22 spots below absolute middle are due to too many road games.



U is #16. They play mostly at home. They shoot 5% better at home.



Almost every team listed shoots better at home.



Out.



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I don't think you understand how to make a point. I don't have any reason to make your point for you, if it can be made. You alone must show the data that backs up your assertion.
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